2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

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2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

I'm making this thread before I start trying to come up with the fifty songs. Hopefully I can get some gaps filled before the rollout!
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Adrianne Lenker | Anything
Bob Dylan | Murder Most Foul
Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion | WAP
Charli XCX | Forever
Christine and the Queens | People, I've Been Sad
Dua Lipa | Break My Heart
Dua Lipa | Levitating
Dua Lipa | Physical
Fiona Apple | Cosmonauts
Fiona Apple | I Want You to Love Me
Fiona Apple | Heavy Balloon
Fiona Apple | Shameika
Fiona Apple | Under the Table
Fleet Foxes | Sunblind
Fontaines D.C. | A Hero's Death
Grimes | Delete Forever
Haim | The Steps
IDLES | Grounds
Jessie Ware | Remember Where You Are
Jessie Ware | Spotlight
Jessie Ware | What's Your Pleasure?
Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande | Rain on Me
Mac Miller | Good News
Megan Thee Stallion feat. Beyoncé | Savage Remix
Perfume Genius | On the Floor
Perfume Genius | Describe
Phoebe Bridgers | Garden Song
Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
Porridge Radio | Sweet
Sault | Free
Sault | Wildfires
Soccer Mommy | circle the drain
Sufjan Stevens | My Rajneesh
Rina Sawayama | XS
Romy | Lifetime
Run the Jewels feat. Pharrell Williams and Zack de la Rocha | Ju$t
Taylor Swift feat. Bon Iver | Exile
The 1975 | If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)
The Beths | Jump Rope Gazers
The Strokes | The Adults are Talking
The Strokes | Bad Decisions
The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
U.S. Girls | 4 American Dollars
Waxahatchee | Fire
Waxahatchee | Lilacs
Yves Tumor | Gospel for a New Century
Yves Tumor | Kerosene!

Here's 48 we're pretty sure of...
Last edited by Holden on Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Jackson »

That's a good list. I think there is a 100% chance these three are going to make the top 50:
Jessie Ware - Remember Where You Are
Fiona Apple - Cosmonauts
Dua Lipa - Break My Heart

Fontaines DC - A Hero's Death hasn't shown up, but I'm less confident in that.

Looking through the individual lists, Waxahatchee - Can't Do Much and IDLES - Grounds are much more likely to be in the top 50 than outside the top 300.

I don't think Sault's Free will make it, though it would be cool if it did!
Last edited by Jackson on Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Jackson wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:27 am That's a good list. There is a 100% chance these three are going to make the top 50:
Jessie Ware - Remember Where You Are
Fiona Apple - Cosmonauts
Dua Lipa - Break My Heart

Fontaines DC - A Hero's Death hasn't shown up, but I'm less confident in that.
I haven't looked at other songs lists, but I personally ranked A Hero's Death very high, so I doubt it would have less than a hundred points.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Jackson »

My guess for the top 20:
1. Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
2. Jessie Ware | Spotlight
3. Fiona Apple | Shameika
4. Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
5. Christine and the Queens | People, I've Been Sad
6. The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
7. Yves Tumor | Gospel for a New Century
8. Bob Dylan | Murder Most Foul
9. Dua Lipa | Levitating
10. The 1975 | If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)
11. Grimes | Delete Forever
12. Sault | Wildfires
13. Perfume Genius | On the Floor
14. Jessie Ware | Remember Where You Are
15. Dua Lipa | Physical
16. Fiona Apple | I Want You to Love Me
17. Waxahatchee | Fire
18. Haim | The Steps
19. Sufjan Stevens | My Rajneesh
20. Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion | WAP
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by panam »

I Know The End: Top 1
Shameika: Top 5
WAP: Top 20
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Jackson »

Gorillaz - Aires was (probably) the only song we missed out of the top 50. I'm not sure how I overlooked it as it was in my top 50!

I overestimated how WAP's placement was impacted by those last few lists. I think now that it may have been out of the top 100 prior to the last week or so of voting.

Fiona, Jessie, and Phoebe have 25% of the remaining songs.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by acroamor »

Jackson wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:32 pm Gorillaz - Aires was (probably) the only song we missed out of the top 50. I'm not sure how I overlooked it as it was in my top 50!

I overestimated how WAP's placement was impacted by those last few lists. I think now that it may have been out of the top 100 prior to the last week or so of voting.

Fiona, Jessie, and Phoebe have 25% of the remaining songs.
Aries and Ode to the Mets were the two that everyone missed. As for WAP, if I remember right it was probably sitting around 80 or so until the recent boost? The final sets of lists made big changes all around, top to bottom.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Can’t believe I missed Ode to the Mets! But Aries wasn’t even on my radar.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Nick »

The top 30?

1. Adrianne Lenker | Anything
2. Bob Dylan | Murder Most Foul
3. Charli XCX | Forever
4. Christine and the Queens | People, I've Been Sad
5. Dua Lipa | Break My Heart
6. Dua Lipa | Levitating
7. Dua Lipa | Physical
8. Fiona Apple | Cosmonauts
9. Fiona Apple | I Want You to Love Me
10. Fiona Apple | Heavy Balloon
11. Fiona Apple | Shameika
12. Grimes | Delete Forever
13. Haim | The Steps
14. Jessie Ware | Spotlight
15. Jessie Ware | What's Your Pleasure?
16. Perfume Genius | On the Floor
17. Perfume Genius | Describe
18. Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
19. Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
20. Sault | Wildfires
21. Soccer Mommy | circle the drain
22. Sufjan Stevens | My Rajneesh
23. Rina Sawayama | XS
24. Run the Jewels feat. Pharrell Williams and Zack de la Rocha | Ju$t
25. The 1975 | If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)
26. The Strokes | The Adults are Talking
27. The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
28. Waxahatchee | Fire
29. Yves Tumor | Gospel for a New Century
30. Yves Tumor | Kerosene!

Unless I'm missing something.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

I think that’s gotta be it, but I’m a little skeptical about Kerosene, but maybe for no reason.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Nick »

Holden wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:17 pm I think that’s gotta be it, but I’m a little skeptical about Kerosene, but maybe for no reason.
I was a little skeptical too, but I put it in my top 10, and I'd be really, really surprised to see it fail to make the top 300.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

I’m also surprised no Swift songs made the top 30 but there’s no way that any of them would’ve beat exile.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by acroamor »

Holden wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:27 pm I’m also surprised no Swift songs made the top 30 but there’s no way that any of them would’ve beat exile.
She ran into very heavy vote splitting - without double checking, I'm pretty sure she had the greatest total number of songs mentioned, but none of them placed high enough for top thirty, a natural byproduct of dropping two fairly long albums. I think vote splitting was a major theme of this year's results, for her and for others. I'm very excited about the remaining results and I keep wanting to give hints, but I'm going to hold my tongue so the upcoming surprises land properly.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

acroamor wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:36 pm
Holden wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:27 pm I’m also surprised no Swift songs made the top 30 but there’s no way that any of them would’ve beat exile.
She ran into very heavy vote splitting - without double checking, I'm pretty sure she had the greatest total number of songs mentioned, but none of them placed high enough for top thirty, a natural byproduct of dropping two fairly long albums. I think vote splitting was a major theme of this year's results, for her and for others. I'm very excited about the remaining results and I keep wanting to give hints, but I'm going to hold my tongue so the upcoming surprises land properly.
I hadn’t really thought about this for her, but I definitely participated in the vote splitting, preferring some of her less acclaimed tracks (willow, the 1, last great American dynasty) and not voting for her more acclaimed ones like cardigan and exile.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Jackson »

That seems like an unusually high number of artists with multiple songs in the top 30. Wonder how that compares to some of our prior polls.

Also, The Strokes getting 3 songs in the top 50 kind of came out of nowhere for me. Maybe it's because the album came out what seems like ages ago, but I didn't think it had gotten that much discussion around here.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Jackson wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:46 pm That seems like an unusually high number of artists with multiple songs in the top 30. Wonder how that compares to some of our prior polls.
Thought I'd do a quick comparison. Here is the number of unique artists in our top 30 over the past few years (not counting features):
2020: 21
2019: 22
2018: 26
2017: 22
2016: 20


Also, looking through these lists Lana Del Rey is literally everywhere.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Kerosene in the Top 20?!

01. Adrianne Lenker | Anything
02. Christine and the Queens | People, I've Been Sad
03. Dua Lipa | Levitating
04. Dua Lipa | Physical
05. Fiona Apple | I Want You to Love Me
06. Fiona Apple | Heavy Balloon
07. Fiona Apple | Shameika
08. Grimes | Delete Forever
09. Haim | The Steps
10. Jessie Ware | Spotlight
11. Perfume Genius | On the Floor
12. Perfume Genius | Describe
13. Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
14. Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
15. Sault | Wildfires
16. Sufjan Stevens | My Rajneesh
17. The 1975 | If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)
18. The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
19. Yves Tumor | Gospel for a New Century
20. Yves Tumor | Kerosene!
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Jackson »

I got 16 of the top 20 in my prediction. Murder Most Foul was the biggest surprise - I thought that would hit the top 10 easily. Remember Where You Are I also overestimated as its fans are very vocal and it was a strong performer in our mid-year bracket.

I voted for all four of the songs I left out (Anything, Describe, Heavy Balloon, and Kerosene), so perhaps I should have considered my own preferences!
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Nick »

Here's my stab at the top 20:

01. Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
02. Jessie Ware | Spotlight
03. Fiona Apple | Shameika
04. Christine and the Queens | People, I've Been Sad
05. The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
06. Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
07. Yves Tumor | Gospel for a New Century
08. Sault | Wildfires
09. Fiona Apple | Heavy Balloon
10. Perfume Genius | Describe
11. Sufjan Stevens | My Rajneesh
12. The 1975 | If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)
13. Perfume Genius | On the Floor
14. Dua Lipa | Physical
15. Adrianne Lenker | Anything
16. Dua Lipa | Levitating
17. Grimes | Delete Forever
18. Haim | The Steps
19. Fiona Apple | I Want You to Love Me
20. Yves Tumor | Kerosene!
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by BleuPanda »

I'm pleasantly surprised to see Levitating do so well, apparently; I probably should have had it higher on my list considering how often I put it on. If "Don't Start Now" was allowed, I would have had 5 songs by Dua Lipa in my top 50 for the year. I think that oversaturation convinced me to hold back on higher placements...
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Here's my stab at tomorrow Top 20!

01 | Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
02 | Jessie Ware | Spotlight
03 | Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
04 | The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
05 | Fiona Apple | Shameika
06 | Christine and the Queens | People, I've Been Sad
07 | Yves Tumor | Gospel for a New Century
08 | Perfume Genius | On the Floor
09 | Sufjan Stevens | My Rajneesh
10 | The 1975 | If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)
11 | Dua Lipa | Physical
12 | Dua Lipa | Levitating
13 | Haim | The Steps
14 | Fiona Apple | I Want You to Love Me
15 | Grimes | Delete Forever
16 | Perfume Genius | Describe
17 | Fiona Apple | Heavy Balloon
18 | Adrianne Lenker | Anything
19 | Yves Tumor | Kerosene!
20 | Sault | Wildfires
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Jackson »

Here's my re-guess:
1. Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
2. Jessie Ware | Spotlight
3. Fiona Apple | Shameika
4. Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
5. Christine and the Queens | People, I've Been Sad
6. The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
7. Yves Tumor | Gospel for a New Century
8. Dua Lipa | Levitating
9. Sault | Wildfires
10. The 1975 | If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)
11. Grimes | Delete Forever
12. Perfume Genius | On the Floor
13. Fiona Apple | I Want You to Love Me
14. Sufjan Stevens | My Rajneesh
15. Dua Lipa | Physical
16. Fiona Apple | Heavy Balloon
17. Haim | The Steps
18. Adrienne Lenker | Anything
19. Yves Tumor | Kerosene!
20. Perfume Genius | Describe
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by andyd1010 »

Haha, I voted for Aries, Ode to the Mets, Anything, Describe, Heavy Balloon, and had Kerosene! at 6 and Levitating at 4, so you're welcome for all the surprises! Also didn't vote for Murder Most Foul, so I contributed to almost every surprise that's been voiced on this thread.

Bad Decisions somehow eluded me on first listen, but I would have ranked it pretty high now if I redid my list.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Nick »

And now, our top 5 ?:

01. Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
02. Jessie Ware | Spotlight
03. Fiona Apple | Shameika
04. The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
05. Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Shockingly managed to get all of our top five correct!
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Nick »

Holden wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:35 pm Shockingly managed to get all of our top five correct!
Good job! Now the real test: Can you get the order right?
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Nick wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:56 pm
Holden wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:35 pm Shockingly managed to get all of our top five correct!
Good job! Now the real test: Can you get the order right?
Looking at my order I think it’s correct.
01 | Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
02 | Jessie Ware | Spotlight
03 | Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
04 | The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
05 | Fiona Apple | Shameika

But of course who knows. After the top five my list falls apart prediction-wise, but I also think that People, I’ve been sad and Gospel underperformed. I’m even more surprised to see Anything in the Top 10.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by acroamor »

Just as a tease - nobody's gotten the order correct so far.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

acroamor wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:04 pm Just as a tease - nobody's gotten the order correct so far.
Well shucks, in that case:

01 | Phoebe Bridgers | I Know the End
02 | Phoebe Bridgers | Kyoto
03 | Jessie Ware | Spotlight
04 | Fiona Apple | Shameika
05 | The Weeknd | Blinding Lights
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Okay, so to begin the transition to albums results tomorrow, what do you think the highest ranked album with NO songs in our Top 300 will be?
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by BleuPanda »

Holden wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:39 pm Okay, so to begin the transition to albums results tomorrow, what do you think the highest ranked album with NO songs in our Top 300 will be?

Crack Cloud's Pain Olympics, maybe? Or Working Men's Club? I'm trying to think what other albums had nothing land while still being significant.

Edit: also Nubya Garcia. I still want to bet on Pain Olympics of those three, however.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by DaveC »

Holden wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:39 pm Okay, so to begin the transition to albums results tomorrow, what do you think the highest ranked album with NO songs in our Top 300 will be?
Shabrang, Silver Ladders or To Love is to Live. I'll put my imaginary money on Shabrang.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by prosecutorgodot »

Holden wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:39 pm Okay, so to begin the transition to albums results tomorrow, what do you think the highest ranked album with NO songs in our Top 300 will be?
I don't remember if Evermore and the other Sault album had any placing songs, but if not, then those albums.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

prosecutorgodot wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:43 am
Holden wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:39 pm Okay, so to begin the transition to albums results tomorrow, what do you think the highest ranked album with NO songs in our Top 300 will be?
I don't remember if Evermore and the other Sault album had any placing songs, but if not, then those albums.
All of them did have songs
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by panam »

Holden wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:39 pm Okay, so to begin the transition to albums results tomorrow, what do you think the highest ranked album with NO songs in our Top 300 will be?
The Oranssi Pazuzu album?
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Alright so, as a hint towards my previous question, the album in question is in the top one hundred, so you will not see it today during the roll out.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Another question, what will be the highest ranked album that is not in the Critics top 100?
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Edre Depeche Head »

Holden wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:13 pm Another question, what will be the highest ranked album that is not in the Critics top 100?
I hope The Chats - High Risk Behaviour does well
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by DaveC »

Holden wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:13 pm Another question, what will be the highest ranked album that is not in the Critics top 100?
Has to be one of the top 5 moderately-acclaimed-2021. Jump Ropes Gazers seems most likely.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Nick »

I think we all know that Fiona is going to win the albums rollout, but how do you figure the rest of the top 10 will shake out?

For reference, these are the top 20 2020 albums on the AM spreadsheet:

1 | Fiona Apple | Fetch the Bolt Cutters
2 | Phoebe Bridgers | Punisher
3 | Run the Jewels | RTJ4
4 | Bob Dylan | Rough and Rowdy Ways
5 | Dua Lipa | Future Nostalgia
6 | Taylor Swift | folklore
7 | Perfume Genius | Set My Heart on Fire Immediately
8 | Fontaines D.C. | A Hero's Death
9 | Sault | Untitled (Black Is)
10 | HAIM | Women in Music Pt. III
11 | Waxahatchee | Saint Cloud
12 | Yves Tumor | Heaven To a Tortured Mind
13 | Fleet Foxes | Shore
14 | Moses Sumney | græ
15 | Jessie Ware | What’s Your Pleasure?
16 | Tame Impala | The Slow Rush
17 | Sault | Untitled (Rise)
18 | Idles | Ultra Mono
19 | Rina Sawayama | Sawayama
20 | Charli XCX | how i'm feeling now
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Nick »

My best stab at our top 5:

1. Fiona Apple- Fetch the Bolt Cutters
2. Phoebe Bridgers- Punisher
3. Jessie Ware- What's Your Pleasure?
4. Dua Lipa- Future Nostalgia
5. Perfume Genius- Set My Heart on Fire Immediately
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Listyguy »

Is Fiona Apple winning really a done deal? Maybe I'm overreacting to the song results, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Punisher win.
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by BleuPanda »

Listyguy wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:06 pm Is Fiona Apple winning really a done deal? Maybe I'm overreacting to the song results, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Punisher win.
As someone who ranked "I Know the End" and "Kyoto" as #1 and 2, Punisher is still only my #3 album for the year. This could easily be a case where the big hits outshine the full album.

Though I wonder if this will be a case where consolidation flips the results like they did in 2019, where if memory serves Titanic Rising won the EOY poll but then NFR made a big leap in the all-time poll because the people who preferred NFR were more likely to put it high on their list. While there's only two spaces between Fetch the Bolt Cutters and Punisher in my year list, there's probably 200 between them in my all-time list...
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andyd1010
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by andyd1010 »

BleuPanda wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:03 pm
Listyguy wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:06 pm Is Fiona Apple winning really a done deal? Maybe I'm overreacting to the song results, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Punisher win.
As someone who ranked "I Know the End" and "Kyoto" as #1 and 2, Punisher is still only my #3 album for the year. This could easily be a case where the big hits outshine the full album.
Same! Although for me there was almost nothing separating my top three albums.
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Holden
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Okay, new question:
What will be the lowest album on the Critics list in our Top 10? Top 20?
"The better a singer's voice, the harder it is to believe what they're saying."
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Holden
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

Alright, three albums with no songs in our Top 300 remain. Can anyone guess all three?
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by phil »

I guess one of the albums with no songs on top 300 could be Microphones in 2020?
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Rob
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Rob »

phil wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:13 am I guess one of the albums with no songs on top 300 could be Microphones in 2020?
That album's one song was on the list, though.

Part of me holds on to a silly hope that Eefje de Visser's Bitterzoet is one of those three, but it looks like once again I have nominated the rare Moderately Acclaimed album that does not appear on our main list (despite making the top 10 in the poll).

Otherwise, did Mose Sumney have an album in the top 300? King Krule? Do we count Adrianne Lenker's Instrumentals here?
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Holden
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Re: 2020 EOY Prediction's Thread (Spoilers)

Post by Holden »

The correct answer to my first question about the highest ranking album with no songs in the Top 300 was Alfredo at #47!
"The better a singer's voice, the harder it is to believe what they're saying."
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