Last year, top 5 all placed in the top 7 in Otisredding's MegaChart. The top 5 also all had 28 reviews or more:
1. DAMN. (1st on MCCh, 89.3, 28 reviews)
2. American Dream (4th, 88.0, 29 reviews)
3. Melodrama (5th, 87.9, 30 reviews)
4. A Deeper Understanding (7th, 84.7, 31 reviews)
5. MASSEDUCTION (3rd, 88.4, 30 reviews)
NOT TOP 5, but high in MegaChart:
Run the Jewels 3 (43rd in AM, 89.2, 28 reviews) clearly hurt by yearend 2016 release
A Crow Looked At Me (17th, 85.8, 17 reviews) probably hurt by low number of reviews
2016 Top 5:
1. Blackstar (7th on MCCh, 86.3, 30 reviews)
2. A Moon Shaped Pool (9th, 85.0, 30 reviews)
3. Blonde (3rd, 87.8, 28 reviews)
4. Skeleton Tree (1st, 89.6, 25 reviews
5. Lemonade (2nd, 88.7, 28 reviews)
NOT TOP 5, but high in MegaChart:
My Woman (29th in AM, 86.7, 29 reviews)
22, A Million (8th, 86.5, 29 reviews)
You Want It Darker (11th, 86.4, 24 reviews)
We Got It from Here... (10th, 86.0, 22 reviews)
2015 Top 5:
1. To Pimp a Butterfly (1st in MCCh, 94.2, 29 reviews)
2. Carrie & Lowell (2nd, 91.3, 31 reviews)
3. In Colour (11th, 83.9, 27 reviews)
4. Currents (13th, 82.8, 29 reviews)
5. I Love You, Honeybear (6th, 86.3, 28 reviews)
NOT TOP 5, but high in MegaChart:
Vulnicura (9th in AM, 86.7, 31 reviews)
No Cities To Love (10th, 86.7, 30 reviews)
From Kinshasa (46th, 86.5, 7 reviews)
So typically the top 5 have the following things in common:
1. Receive 28 or more reviews (87%)
2. Place in top 10 of MCCh (87%)
3. Score 86 or higher on MCCh (73%)
So, this implies that albums typically need at least 27+ reviews and typically rank in the top 10 in MCCh.
This year is weird because most of the top albums on MCCh have less than 27 reviews. The only albums with 27+ reviews in the top 10 are Dirty Computer, Negro Swan, Be the Cowboy and Ordinary Corrupt Human Love. Daytona only has 17 reviews, so it seems likely it will not crack the top five. Deafheaven probably isn't universal enough to crack the top 10 either.
I think that means the most likely top 5 (so far) for this year are probably Dirty Computer, Be the Cowboy, Negro Swan, Joy as an Act of Resistance and Beach House 7.
With that said, typically the top 5 albums each year have had scores over 86. This year there hasn't been a single album with a score above 86. Let's hope for a great final three months!