2017 Albums: AM All-Time Top 3000 Predictions

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Harold
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2017 Albums: AM All-Time Top 3000 Predictions

Post by Harold » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:27 pm

In the wake of Henrik's announcement that the (final?) site update will probably be coming in July, I was going to bump my predictions about the 2017 albums likely to make the AM top 3000 to the top of the forum - only to realize that I hadn't actually posted any predictions yet. So, here goes!

Forum veterans probably know that, once the EOY albums spreadsheet is complete, I usually post a completely unscientific set of predictions as to which of the year's albums will end up on the all-time top 3000 when the site is updated, and in what order. My "method" is simply to add each album's points from the spreadsheet to its Metacritic score. (I used to incorporate AllMusic ratings as well, but since I've been having issues with the site I'm leaving that element - which only adds an additional 3 to 4.5, in most cases, to the score anyway - out this year.) As basic as this calculation is, it's been surprisingly accurate over the years.

The format for each listing is as follows:
Artist / Title / AM Spreadsheet Points / MetaScore / Total

TOP 200:
Kendrick Lamar / DAMN. / 467 / 95 / 562

201-500:
LCD Soundsystem / American Dream / 280 / 86 / 366
Lorde / Melodrama / 252 / 91 / 343
The War on Drugs / A Deeper Understanding / 215 / 81 / 296
St. Vincent / MASSEDUCTION / 206 / 88 / 294

501-1000:
Vince Staples / Big Fish Theory / 177 / 89 / 266
The National / Sleep Well Beast / 180 / 85 / 265
SZA / Ctrl / 173 / 86 / 259
Slowdive / Slowdive / 171 / 82 / 253
King Krule / The Ooz / 150 / 80 / 230
Father John Misty / Pure Comedy / 141 / 85 / 226

1001-2000:
Thundercat / Drunk / 131 / 80 / 211
Sampha / Process / 124 / 86 / 210
Mount Eerie / A Crow Looked at Me / 115 / 93 / 208
The xx / I See You / 122 / 85 / 207
Perfume Genius / No Shape / 122 / 84 / 206
Fever Ray / Plunge / 116 / 87 / 203
Arca / Arca / 115 / 87 / 202
Kelela / Take Me Apart / 112 / 84 / 196
Tyler, The Creator / Flower Boy / 106 / 84 / 190
Jlin / Black Origami / 96 / 89 / 185
Jay-Z / 4:44 / 81 / 82 / 163
Queens of the Stone Age / Villains / 77 / 81 / 158
Big Thief / Capacity / 74 / 81 / 155
Algiers / The Underside of Power / 69 / 86 / 155
Fleet Foxes / Crack-Up / 73 / 81 / 154
Bjork / Utopia / 67 / 82 / 149

2001-3000:
Migos / Culture / 63 / 79 / 142
Protomartyr / Relatives in Descent / 55 / 85 / 140
Courtney Barnett & Kurt Vile / Lotta Sea Lice / 59 / 79 / 138
Moses Sumney / Aromanticism / 53 / 85 / 138
Grizzly Bear / Painted Ruins / 54 / 82 / 136
Lana Del Rey / Lust for Life / 56 / 78 / 134
Spoon / Hot Thoughts / 52 / 82 / 134
Julien Baker / Turn Out the Lights / 50 / 83 / 133
Aldous Harding / Party / 50 / 83 / 133
Cigarettes After Sex / Cigarettes After Sex / 57 / 75 / 132
Alvvays / Antisocialites / 55 / 77 / 132
Run the Jewels / Run the Jewels 3 [2016] / 44 / 88 / 132
Hurray for the Riff Raff / The Navigator / 48 / 83 / 131
Kelly Lee Owens / Kelly Lee Owens / 50 / 79 / 129
Wolf Alice / Visions of a Life / 48 / 81 / 129
Richard Dawson / Peasant / 45 / 82 / 127
IDLES / Brutalism / 39 / 88 / 127
Japanese Breakfast / Soft Sounds from Another Planet / 43 / 83 / 126
Laura Marling / Semper Femina / 41 / 85 / 126

Top 3000 Possibilities/High Bubblers:
Jason Isbell and The 400 Unit / The Nashville Sound / 42 / 82 / 124
Converge / The Dusk in Us / 35 / 89 / 124
Mount Kimbie / Love What Survives / 41 / 82 / 123
Priests / Nothing Feels Natural / 39 / 83 / 122
J Hus / Common Sense / 38 / 84 / 122
The Horrors / V / 35 / 87 / 122
Mac DeMarco / This Old Dog / 40 / 79 / 119
Charlotte Gainsbourg / Rest / 39 / 80 / 119
Stormzy / Gang Signs & Prayer / 37 / 82 / 119
The Magnetic Fields / 50 Song Memoir / 33 / 86 / 119
Kaitlyn Aurelia Smith / The Kid / 36 / 82 / 118

letmeintomyzone
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Re: 2017 Albums: AM All-Time Top 3000 Predictions

Post by letmeintomyzone » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:08 pm

How far will Melodrama make on the updated in general?

Is the 251-260 range is likely?

Harold
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Re: 2017 Albums: AM All-Time Top 3000 Predictions

Post by Harold » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:50 pm

letmeintomyzone wrote:How far will Melodrama make on the updated in general?

Is the 251-260 range is likely?
Well, there's only one person who can answer that... ;)

letmeintomyzone
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Re: 2017 Albums: AM All-Time Top 3000 Predictions

Post by letmeintomyzone » Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:01 pm

Harold wrote:
letmeintomyzone wrote:How far will Melodrama make on the updated in general?

Is the 251-260 range is likely?
Well, there's only one person who can answer that... ;)
OK. Here's a set of probably wrong predictions for now

MOVES OUT OF TOP 100:
- Definitely Maybe
- I Never Loved A Man The Way I Love You
- Imagine

MOVES INTO TOP 100:
- Sound of Silver
- The Soft Bulletin
- Enter the Wu Tang

MOVES OUT OF TOP 200:
- Stand!
- Exodus
- Licensed to Ill

MOVES INTO TOP 200:
- Suicide
- The College Dropout
- DAMN
- Carrie & Lowell

MOVES OUT OF TOP 250:
- Roxy Music
- Cheap Thrills
- Kala

MOVES INTO TOP 250:
- Pink Moon
- Fear of Music
- In the Aeroplane Over the Sea

Keep in mind, these are just random speculation and hopes

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Henrik
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Re: 2017 Albums: AM All-Time Top 3000 Predictions

Post by Henrik » Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:33 pm

I will just add the eoy lists so don’t expect much else to happen.
Everyone you meet fights a battle you know nothing about. Be kind. Always.

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