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Guess the positions of the final 20 songs!

Lowest score wins where score = sum((guess - actual)^2).

Here are the 20 remaining songs.

Amy Winehouse | Rehab
Arcade Fire | Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
Arcade Fire | Rebellion (Lies)
Arcade Fire | Wake Up
Coldplay | Clocks
Coldplay | Viva la Vida
Eminem | Lose Yourself
Franz Ferdinand | Take Me Out
Gnarls Barkley | Crazy
Johnny Cash | Hurt
LCD Soundsystem | All My Friends
LCD Soundsystem | Someone Great
M.I.A. | Paper Planes
MGMT | Time to Pretend
OutKast | B.O.B.
OutKast | Hey Ya!
Portishead | The Rip
Radiohead | Pyramid Song
Sufjan Stevens | Chicago
The White Stripes | Seven Nation Army

I'll keep this game open for 24 hours before continuing the countdown.

I'm glad to be running this because guessing this is fiendishly difficult.

Viva la Vida top 20 (horrendous)? The Rip that high (great song though) ? Pyramid Song as the highest ranked Radiohead song (which was the case in 2001 but I had completely forgotten)? Well, I wouldn’t have guessed that so it doesn’t bode too well for my other predictions !

20. Viva la Vida (wishful thinking…)
19. The Rip
18. Rehab
17. Pyramid Song
16. Take Me Out
15. Clocks
14. Someone Great
13. Lose Yourself
12. Neighborhood #1
11. Time to Pretend
10. Chicago
9. Hurt
8. Seven Nation Army
7. Rebellion Lies
6. Wake Up (over Rebellion Lies, wishful thinking again)
5. Paper planes
4. B.O.B.
3. Crazy
2. All My Friends
1. Hey Ya

Here's my guess, written before I read DaveC's comment that 'guessing will be fiendishly difficult'. Now I'm wondering if I need to put a few more surprises into my prediction.

20 | MGMT | Time to Pretend
19 | Portishead | The Rip
18 | Amy Winehouse | Rehab
17 | LCD Soundsystem | Someone Great
16 | Radiohead | Pyramid Song
15 | Coldplay | Viva la Vida
14 | Eminem | Lose Yourself
13 | Arcade Fire | Wake Up
12 | Arcade Fire | Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
11 | Coldplay | Clocks
10 | Johnny Cash | Hurt
9 | Franz Ferdinand | Take Me Out
8 | Arcade Fire | Rebellion (Lies)
7 | M.I.A. | Paper Planes
6 | Sufjan Stevens | Chicago
5 | OutKast | B.O.B.
4 | The White Stripes | Seven Nation Army
3 | LCD Soundsystem | All My Friends
2 | Gnarls Barkley | Crazy
1 | OutKast | Hey Ya!

Coldplay | Viva la Vida
Amy Winehouse | Rehab
Eminem | Lose Yourself
Johnny Cash | Hurt
Arcade Fire | Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
Coldplay | Clocks
Portishead | The Rip
LCD Soundsystem | Someone Great
Franz Ferdinand | Take Me Out
MGMT | Time to Pretend
Arcade Fire | Rebellion (Lies)
Sufjan Stevens | Chicago
LCD Soundsystem | All My Friends
Arcade Fire | Wake Up
Radiohead | Pyramid Song
OutKast | B.O.B.
The White Stripes | Seven Nation Army
Gnarls Barkley | Crazy
M.I.A. | Paper Planes
OutKast | Hey Ya!

20. Portishead – The Rip
19. Coldplay – Clocks
18. Radiohead – Pyramid Song
17. Amy Winehouse – Rehab
16. Coldplay – Viva la Vida
15. LCD Soundsystem – Someone Great
14. Johnny Cash – Hurt
13. Franz Ferdinand – Take Me Out
12. Eminem – Lose Yourself
11. M.I.A. – Paper Planes
10. Arcade Fire – Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
9. Arcade Fire – Rebellion (Lies)
8. Gnarls Barkley – Crazy
7. MGMT – Time to Pretend
6. OutKast – B.O.B.
5. Arcade Fire – Wake Up
4. OutKast – Hey Ya!
3. The White Stripes – Seven Nation Army
2. Sufjan Stevens – Chicago
1. LCD Soundsystem – All My Friends

Wait, how is there only one Radiohead song in the top 20? That seems wrong.... (I know it's not, but I'm still confused)

I also remember Dave at some point saying the current #1 had not received any #1 votes (this could have changed of course). To me that eliminates the likes of "All My Friends" and "Crazy" from the top spot. Also I definitely have a wishful thinking placements here ("Hurt", "Rebellion")

20. Amy Winehouse | Rehab
19. Arcade Fire | Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
18. Portishead | The Rip
17. Coldplay | Viva la Vida
16. LCD Soundsystem | Someone Great
15. Coldplay | Clocks
14. MGMT | Time to Pretend
13. Eminem | Lose Yourself
12. M.I.A. | Paper Planes
11. Radiohead | Pyramid Song
10. Franz Ferdinand | Take Me Out
9. Arcade Fire | Wake Up
8. Johnny Cash | Hurt
7. Arcade Fire | Rebellion (Lies)
6. OutKast | B.O.B.
5. Gnarls Barkley | Crazy
4. Sufjan Stevens | Chicago
3. The White Stripes | Seven Nation Army
2. LCD Soundsystem | All My Friends
1. OutKast | Hey Ya!

I don't have a clue, but here you go:

20. Arcade Fire | Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
19. Portishead | The Rip
18. Coldplay | Viva la Vida
17. Radiohead | Pyramid Song
16. MGMT | Time to Pretend
15. Amy Winehouse | Rehab
14. Eminem | Lose Yourself
13. Coldplay | Clocks
12. The White Stripes | Seven Nation Army
11. LCD Soundsystem | Someone Great
10. Gnarls Barkley | Crazy
9. Arcade Fire | Wake Up
8. Johnny Cash | Hurt
7. Franz Ferdinand | Take Me Out
6. Arcade Fire | Rebellion (Lies)
5. OutKast | B.O.B.
4. LCD Soundsystem | All My Friends
3. M.I.A. | Paper Planes
2. Sufjan Stevens | Chicago
1. OutKast | Hey Ya!

Two Coldplay songs in the top 20??? Good ones, but still.

I would never remember "The Rip" was still to appear. From the pattern of the results so far, I guess something like this:

20. Radiohead - Pyramid Song
19. Portishead - The Rip
18. MGMT - Time to Pretend
17. Eminem - Lose Yourself
16. Sufjan Stevens - Chicago
15. Amy Winehouse - Rehab
14. Coldplay - Clocks
13. Johnny Cash - Hurt
12. Coldplay - Viva la Vida
11. LCD Soundsystem - Someone Great
10. Outkast - B.O.B
9. Franz Ferdinand - Take Me Out
8. Arcade Fire - Neighboorhood #1 (Tunnels)
7. The White Stripes - Seven Nation Army
6. Arcade Fire - Wake Up
5. LCD Soundsystem - All My Friends
4. Arcade Fire - Rebellion (Lies)
3. Gnarls Barkley - Crazy
2. Outkast - Hey Ya
1. M.I.A - Paper Planes

20 | Coldplay | Viva la Vida
19 | Portishead | The Rip
18 | Radiohead | Pyramid Song
17 | MGMT | Time to Pretend
16 | Amy Winehouse | Rehab
15 | Eminem | Lose Yourself
14 | LCD Soundsystem | Someone Great
13 | Coldplay | Clocks
12 | Arcade Fire | Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
11 | Johnny Cash | Hurt
10 | Franz Ferdinand | Take Me Out
9 | Sufjan Stevens | Chicago
8 | Arcade Fire | Wake Up
7 | Arcade Fire | Rebellion (Lies)
6 | M.I.A. | Paper Planes
5 | OutKast | B.O.B.
4 | Gnarls Barkley | Crazy
3 | The White Stripes | Seven Nation Army
2 | LCD Soundsystem | All My Friends
1 | OutKast | Hey Ya!

1. OutKast - Hey Ya!
2. M.I.A.- Paper Planes
3. LCD Soundsystem - All My Friends
4. Arcade Fire - Rebellion (Lies)
5. The White Stripes- Seven Nation Army
6. Franz Ferdinand Take Me Out
7. Sufjan Stevens / Chicago
8. Gnarls Barkley / Crazy
9. Amy Winehouse Rehab
10. OutKast B.O.B. (Bombs Over Baghdad)
11. Arcade Fire Wake Up
12. Radiohead - Pyramid Song
13. LCD Soundsystem - Someone Great
14. Johnny Cash - Hurt
15. MGMT - Time To Pretend
16. Eminem - Lose Yourself
17. Arcade Fire - Neighbourhood #1 (Tunnels)
18. Portishead - The Rip
19. Coldplay / Clocks
20. Coldplay - Viva La Vida

I'm revising my prediction from the one above as below.

20 | MGMT | Time to Pretend
19 | Portishead | The Rip
18 | Amy Winehouse | Rehab
17 | Eminem | Lose Yourself
16 | Johnny Cash | Hurt
15 | LCD Soundsystem | Someone Great
14 | Radiohead | Pyramid Song
13 | Arcade Fire | Wake Up
12 | Arcade Fire | Neighborhood #1 (Tunnels)
11 | Coldplay | Viva la Vida
10 | Coldplay | Clocks
9 | Franz Ferdinand | Take Me Out
8 | The White Stripes | Seven Nation Army
7 | LCD Soundsystem | All My Friends
6 | Arcade Fire | Rebellion (Lies)
5 | M.I.A. | Paper Planes
4 | OutKast | B.O.B.
3 | Sufjan Stevens | Chicago
2 | OutKast | Hey Ya!
1 | Gnarls Barkley | Crazy

Closing now.

Two of these lists have impressively low scores..

I'll start the top 20 countdown after a nights sleep.

So I correctly guessed which songs would be 20-16, even if none of the exact positions were correct.

Sweepstakes Ron wrote:So I correctly guessed which songs would be 20-16, even if none of the exact positions were correct.

I nailed a few of them, but "Pyramid Song" killed me. And it looks like "Neighborhood 1" will too

I think “Time to Pretend” and “Chicago” are gonna kill me.
Happy to see the 3 big “Funeral” songs in the top 15.

I blew it on Amy Winehouse - Rehab.

How about top 15 predictions?

1. OutKast - Hey Ya!
2. M.I.A.- Paper Planes
3. LCD Soundsystem - All My Friends
4. Arcade Fire - Rebellion (Lies)
5. The White Stripes - Seven Nation Army
6. Franz Ferdinand - Take Me Out
7. Sufjan Stevens / Chicago
8. Gnarls Barkley / Crazy
9. OutKast - B.O.B. (Bombs Over Baghdad)
10. Arcade Fire - Wake Up
11. LCD Soundsystem - Someone Great
12. Arcade Fire - Neighbourhood #1 (Tunnels)
13. Johnny Cash - Hurt
14. MGMT - Time To Pretend
15. Eminem - Lose Yourself

So the rank of "Chicago" has proven most costly to some guessers. Almost everyone over-estimated it's performance, while Toni underestimated.

DaveC wrote:So the rank of "Chicago" has proven most costly to some guessers. Almost everyone over-estimated it's performance, while Toni underestimated.

For me it Will be Take Me Out, I had everything else within 3 spots.

How about a top 6 prediction?

1. OutKast - Hey Ya!
2. M.I.A.- Paper Planes
3. LCD Soundsystem - All My Friends
4. The White Stripes - Seven Nation Army
5. Gnarls Barkley / Crazy
6. OutKast - B.O.B. (Bombs Over Baghdad)

Interesting that OutKast has two top 6 songs, while Radiohead and Arcade Fire have ZERO.

I'm pretty happy with our top ten. I'm still hoping that one of the top 3 has a higher low than Hurt (110).

3. Paper Planes
2. B.O.B.
1. Crazy

So it's a battle of Rolling Stone vs. Pitchfork... well for me the choice of #1 is easy. Of course, Paper Planes could totally surprise me

I was doing really well besides Time to Pretend, and I got #7 right and the top 6 right... But I got the order of the top 6 totally wrong. I shouldn't underestimate how much you guys love B.O.B... More than Hey Ya, wow

Very unexpected top 3!

Top 3 prediction:

1. M.I.A.- Paper Planes
2. Gnarls Barkley / Crazy
3. OutKast - B.O.B. (Bombs Over Baghdad)

Surely Crazy is #1? (But evidence would suggest you shouldn't trust my predictions!)

phil wrote:Surely Crazy is #1? (But evidence would suggest you shouldn't trust my predictions!)

Maybe it’s Crazy
Maybe it’s Crazy
Maybe it’s Crazy
Possibly

RESULTS

Sweepstakes Ron 382
Henry 378
Romain 360
phil#2 346
Rob 344
Listyguy 322
Toni 282
phil#1 228

and then two remarkably impressive low scores

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Nassim 168

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and our champion guesser with only 142 points


andyd1010

Wow! Like I said, I thought I blew it with Time to Pretend and jumbling the top 6, but I guess that shows how surprising the final results were. This was fun, thanks DaveC.