2016 Albums: AM All-Time Top 3000 Predictions

[Harold]

Now that the 2016 EOY albums spreadsheet is complete, it's time for one of my favorite annual exercises: trying to predict which albums will make it to the AM All-Time Top 3000, and (more or less) in what order.

Forum veterans are probably familiar by now with my remarkably unscientific system, pretty much the exact opposite of Henrik's precise algorithmic formulas but surprisingly accurate over the years nonetheless (when I did this last year, all but two of the 54 2015 albums that landed in the top 3000 on Henrik's "unofficial update" were within the top 60 on my prediction list).

Each album's point total represents the simple addition of the following:
*Number of points on the AM EOY spreadsheet;
*Metacritic score;
*AllMusic Guide rating (NOTE: several albums have gone unreviewed at AMG).

The data for each album are divided as follows:

Rank / Artist / Title / AM EOY Score / MetaScore / AMG / Total Points

Here are my predictions for the update of the all-time list:

TOP 200:
1 / David Bowie / Blackstar / 517 / 87 / 4 / 608

201-500:
2 / Radiohead / A Moon Shaped Pool / 320 / 88 / 4 / 412
3 / Frank Ocean / Blonde / 294 / 87 / 3.5 / 384.5
4 / Nick Cave and The Bad Seeds / Skeleton Tree / 283 / 95 / 4 / 382
5 / Beyonce / Lemonade / 264 / 92 / 3.5 / 359.5
6 / Solange / A Seat at the Table / 223 / 89 / 4.5 / 316.5

501-1000:
7 / Bon Iver / 22, A Million / 199 / 87 / 4 / 290
8 / Kanye West / The Life of Pablo / 209 / 75 / 3.5 / 287.5
9 / Angel Olsen / My Woman / 188 / 87 / 4 / 279
10 / A Tribe Called Quest / We Got It from Here… Thank You 4 Your Service / 182 / 90 / 4.5 / 276.5
11 / Leonard Cohen / You Want It Darker / 179 / 92 / 4 / 275
12 / Anohni / Hopelessness / 176 / 83 / 3 / 262
13 / Chance The Rapper / Coloring Book / 165 / 90 / 4.5 / 259.5
14 / Car Seat Headrest / Teens of Denial / 142 / 86 / 4 / 232
15 / Danny Brown / Atrocity Exhibition / 141 / 85 / 4.5 / 230.5
16 / Anderson .Paak / Malibu / 141 / 85 / 4 / 230

1001-2000:
17 / Blood Orange / Freetown Sound / 117 / 82 / 3.5 / 202.5
18 / Kaytranada / 99.9% / 110 / 81 / 4 / 195
19 / Mitski / Puberty 2 / 91 / 87 / 4.5 / 182.5
20 / PJ Harvey / The Hope Six Demolition Project / 97 / 79 / 3.5 / 179.5
21 / Jenny Hval / Blood Bitch / 91 / 84 / 4 / 179
22 / Skepta / Konnichiwa / 81 / 83 / 4 / 168
23 / Kendrick Lamar / untitled unmastered. / 75 / 86 / 4 / 165
24 / Iggy Pop / Post Pop Depression / 79 / 79 / 4 / 162
25 / Rihanna / Anti / 84 / 73 / 4 / 161
26 / Michael Kiwanuka / Love & Hate / 70 / 86 / 4 / 160
27 / Kate Tempest / Let Them Eat Chaos / 68 / 84 / 4.5 / 156.5
28 / Parquet Courts / Human Performance / 67 / 82 / 4 / 153
29 / Whitney / Light Upon the Lake / 64 / 83 / 4 / 151
30 / Sturgill Simpson / A Sailor's Guide to Earth / 60 / 86 / 4 / 150

2001-3000:
31 / James Blake / The Colour in Anything / 64 / 78 / 3.5 / 145.5
31 / The Avalanches / Wildflower / 59 / 83 / 3.5 / 145.5
33 / Nicolas Jaar / Sirens / 59 / 79 / / 138
34 / Savages / Adore Life / 48 / 82 / 4 / 134
35 / Jessy Lanza / Oh No / 47 / 82 / 4.5 / 133.5
36 / King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard / Nonagon Infinity / 45 / 83 / 4 / 132
37 / Young Thug / JEFFERY / 44 / 82 / 4 / 130
37 / Kevin Morby / Singing Saw / 42 / 84 / 4 / 130
37 / Drive-By Truckers / American Band / 38 / 88 / 4 / 130
40 / Margo Price / Midwest Farmer's Daughter / 36 / 86 / 4.5 / 126.5
41 / The 1975 / I Like It When You Sleep, for You Are So Beautiful Yet So Unaware of It / 45 / 75 / 4 / 124
42 / Hamilton Leithauser + Rostam / I Had a Dream That You Were Mine / 36 / 82 / 4 / 122
43 / YG / Still Brazy / 34 / 83 / 4 / 121
44 / Weyes Blood / Front Row Seat to Earth / 35 / 82 / 3.5 / 120.5

Top 3000 Possibilities / Strong Bubblers:
45 / ScHoolboy Q / Blank Face LP / 34 / 81 / 4 / 119
45 / The Radio Dept. / Running Out of Love / 33 / 82 / 4 / 119
47 / Paul Simon / Stranger to Stranger / 29 / 85 / 4 / 118
48 / Swans / The Glowing Man / 32 / 81 / 4 / 117
49 / Neko Case/k.d. lang/Laura Veirs / case/lang/veirs / 30 / 83 / 3.5 / 116.5
50 / Cass McCombs / Mangy Love / 30 / 81 / 4 / 115
51 / Wilco / Schmilco / 32 / 79 / 3.5 / 114.5
52 / Preoccupations / Preoccupations / 31 / 79 / 4 / 114
53 / Lambchop / FLOTUS / 26 / 83 / 4 / 113
54 / Pinegrove / Cardinal / 24 / 84 / 4 / 112
55 / Noname / Telefone / 26 / 84 / / 110
55 / Christine and The Queens / Chaleur Humaine [2014] / 21 / 85 / 4 / 110
57 / The Rolling Stones / Blue & Lonesome / 23 / 82 / 4.5 / 109.5
58 / Tim Hecker / Love Streams / 23 / 82 / 4 / 109
59 / White Lung / Paradise / 25 / 79 / 4 / 108
60 / Frankie Cosmos / Next Thing / 25 / 78 / 4 / 107
60 / Anna Meredith / Varmints / 23 / 84 / / 107

[babydoll]

Can I just say how much I am proud of Solange for finally achieving her belated success? She's talented. "Losing You" still remains one of my favorite songs of the decade.

[letmeintomyzone]

Now that the 2016 EOY albums spreadsheet is complete, it's time for one of my favorite annual exercises: trying to predict which albums will make it to the AM All-Time Top 3000, and (more or less) in what order.

Forum veterans are probably familiar by now with my remarkably unscientific system, pretty much the exact opposite of Henrik's precise algorithmic formulas but surprisingly accurate over the years nonetheless (when I did this last year, all but two of the 54 2015 albums that landed in the top 3000 on Henrik's "unofficial update" were within the top 60 on my prediction list).

Each album's point total represents the simple addition of the following:
*Number of points on the AM EOY spreadsheet;
*Metacritic score;
*AllMusic Guide rating (NOTE: several albums have gone unreviewed at AMG).

The data for each album are divided as follows:

Rank / Artist / Title / AM EOY Score / MetaScore / AMG / Total Points

Here are my predictions for the update of the all-time list:

TOP 200:
1 / David Bowie / Blackstar / 517 / 87 / 4 / 608

201-500:
2 / Radiohead / A Moon Shaped Pool / 320 / 88 / 4 / 412
3 / Frank Ocean / Blonde / 294 / 87 / 3.5 / 384.5
4 / Nick Cave and The Bad Seeds / Skeleton Tree / 283 / 95 / 4 / 382
5 / Beyonce / Lemonade / 264 / 92 / 3.5 / 359.5
6 / Solange / A Seat at the Table / 223 / 89 / 4.5 / 316.5

501-1000:
7 / Bon Iver / 22, A Million / 199 / 87 / 4 / 290
8 / Kanye West / The Life of Pablo / 209 / 75 / 3.5 / 287.5
9 / Angel Olsen / My Woman / 188 / 87 / 4 / 279
10 / A Tribe Called Quest / We Got It from Here… Thank You 4 Your Service / 182 / 90 / 4.5 / 276.5
11 / Leonard Cohen / You Want It Darker / 179 / 92 / 4 / 275
12 / Anohni / Hopelessness / 176 / 83 / 3 / 262
13 / Chance The Rapper / Coloring Book / 165 / 90 / 4.5 / 259.5
14 / Car Seat Headrest / Teens of Denial / 142 / 86 / 4 / 232
15 / Danny Brown / Atrocity Exhibition / 141 / 85 / 4.5 / 230.5
16 / Anderson .Paak / Malibu / 141 / 85 / 4 / 230

1001-2000:
17 / Blood Orange / Freetown Sound / 117 / 82 / 3.5 / 202.5
18 / Kaytranada / 99.9% / 110 / 81 / 4 / 195
19 / Mitski / Puberty 2 / 91 / 87 / 4.5 / 182.5
20 / PJ Harvey / The Hope Six Demolition Project / 97 / 79 / 3.5 / 179.5
21 / Jenny Hval / Blood Bitch / 91 / 84 / 4 / 179
22 / Skepta / Konnichiwa / 81 / 83 / 4 / 168
23 / Kendrick Lamar / untitled unmastered. / 75 / 86 / 4 / 165
24 / Iggy Pop / Post Pop Depression / 79 / 79 / 4 / 162
25 / Rihanna / Anti / 84 / 73 / 4 / 161
26 / Michael Kiwanuka / Love & Hate / 70 / 86 / 4 / 160
27 / Kate Tempest / Let Them Eat Chaos / 68 / 84 / 4.5 / 156.5
28 / Parquet Courts / Human Performance / 67 / 82 / 4 / 153
29 / Whitney / Light Upon the Lake / 64 / 83 / 4 / 151
30 / Sturgill Simpson / A Sailor's Guide to Earth / 60 / 86 / 4 / 150

2001-3000:
31 / James Blake / The Colour in Anything / 64 / 78 / 3.5 / 145.5
31 / The Avalanches / Wildflower / 59 / 83 / 3.5 / 145.5
33 / Nicolas Jaar / Sirens / 59 / 79 / / 138
34 / Savages / Adore Life / 48 / 82 / 4 / 134
35 / Jessy Lanza / Oh No / 47 / 82 / 4.5 / 133.5
36 / King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard / Nonagon Infinity / 45 / 83 / 4 / 132
37 / Young Thug / JEFFERY / 44 / 82 / 4 / 130
37 / Kevin Morby / Singing Saw / 42 / 84 / 4 / 130
37 / Drive-By Truckers / American Band / 38 / 88 / 4 / 130
40 / Margo Price / Midwest Farmer's Daughter / 36 / 86 / 4.5 / 126.5
41 / The 1975 / I Like It When You Sleep, for You Are So Beautiful Yet So Unaware of It / 45 / 75 / 4 / 124
42 / Hamilton Leithauser + Rostam / I Had a Dream That You Were Mine / 36 / 82 / 4 / 122
43 / YG / Still Brazy / 34 / 83 / 4 / 121
44 / Weyes Blood / Front Row Seat to Earth / 35 / 82 / 3.5 / 120.5

Top 3000 Possibilities / Strong Bubblers:
45 / ScHoolboy Q / Blank Face LP / 34 / 81 / 4 / 119
45 / The Radio Dept. / Running Out of Love / 33 / 82 / 4 / 119
47 / Paul Simon / Stranger to Stranger / 29 / 85 / 4 / 118
48 / Swans / The Glowing Man / 32 / 81 / 4 / 117
49 / Neko Case/k.d. lang/Laura Veirs / case/lang/veirs / 30 / 83 / 3.5 / 116.5
50 / Cass McCombs / Mangy Love / 30 / 81 / 4 / 115
51 / Wilco / Schmilco / 32 / 79 / 3.5 / 114.5
52 / Preoccupations / Preoccupations / 31 / 79 / 4 / 114
53 / Lambchop / FLOTUS / 26 / 83 / 4 / 113
54 / Pinegrove / Cardinal / 24 / 84 / 4 / 112
55 / Noname / Telefone / 26 / 84 / / 110
55 / Christine and The Queens / Chaleur Humaine [2014] / 21 / 85 / 4 / 110
57 / The Rolling Stones / Blue & Lonesome / 23 / 82 / 4.5 / 109.5
58 / Tim Hecker / Love Streams / 23 / 82 / 4 / 109
59 / White Lung / Paradise / 25 / 79 / 4 / 108
60 / Frankie Cosmos / Next Thing / 25 / 78 / 4 / 107
60 / Anna Meredith / Varmints / 23 / 84 / / 107

Where will






End up in the top 250?

[babydoll]

letmeintoyourzone, don't worry so much about data. Just let the music flow. Just those charts as a guide to your ears and heart. As Kate Hudson in Almost Famous said, "It's all about the music."

That being said, those four albums and that of the Knowles sisters will probably end up in the 250. No one, with the exception of a privileged few, could pinpoint the exact position.

[Nick]

Seeing as every year in this decade so far has had, at most, 2 albums in the top 250 of all time, it's probably safe to say that none of those albums other than Blackstar and maybe A Moon Shaped Pool will make the top 250.

[Nick]

If you're like me and you're curious as to when the last time a year had 4 albums in the top 250, the answer is 2007. For 5 albums in the top 250 the answer is 2002. For 6 albums in the top 250 you have to head on back to 1995.

[Harold]

I have no idea exactly where Blackstar or any other album will end up ranking in the next official update. I'll say this, though: based on its total "points" above and the fact that it's included in the latest 1001 Albums... book, I expect Blackstar to be the highest-ranking new entry, edging out To Pimp a Butterfly.

[letmeintomyzone]

I have no idea exactly where Blackstar or any other album will end up ranking in the next official update. I'll say this, though: based on its total "points" above and the fact that it's included in the latest 1001 Albums... book, I expect Blackstar to be the highest-ranking new entry, edging out To Pimp a Butterfly.

Personally believe Blackstar and Blonde are the only ones with top 250 shot

[Nick]

I have no idea exactly where Blackstar or any other album will end up ranking in the next official update. I'll say this, though: based on its total "points" above and the fact that it's included in the latest 1001 Albums... book, I expect Blackstar to be the highest-ranking new entry, edging out To Pimp a Butterfly.

Personally believe Blackstar and Blonde are the only ones with top 250 shot

"Blackstar" definitely. "Blonde" is a maybe. I'm almost positive Henrik said in another thread that "To Pimp a Butterfly" was going to enter in at around #130 or so though.

[mowino]

As long as My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy remains #1 this decade, I'm good

[babydoll]

As long as My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy remains #1 this decade, I'm good

To add to that, as long as To Pimp a Butterfly ends up being #2 this decade, I'm good.