EOY 2016 Predictions

[GucciLittlePiggy]

Well, 2016 is upon us and things are shaping up to be another landmark year for top shelf music releases. I figured it would be fun to make some predictions for what the critics' favorite albums may be this year, and take a moment to discuss what you're most looking forward to.

I didn't really go out on a limb with any of my picks, but I tend to play it conservative with games like this.

1. Frank Ocean
- Even with both Kanye and Radiohead slated to release albums this year, I think Frank's is probably the most anticipated of 2016. This alone will give him a great shot at the number one spot.
2. Bon Iver
3. Radiohead
- because Radiohead
4. James Blake
- If he can blend the experimentation of the 200 Press EP with a bit of accessibility, we could see his most acclaimed work yet.
5. PJ Harvey
6. Kanye West
- Based on what we've heard over the past year from Kanye, I think we may have to prepare for the first Yeezy album that isn't groundbreaking. Not saying it won't be very good (it is Kanye, Mr. Perfectionist, after all) so that's why I still think it will crack the top ten.
7. The xx
8. Run the Jewels
9. David Bowie
- Rounding out my top ten with my two most adventurous picks. The early reviews for Blackstar have been very good and we heard how great the title track was last year, but the reason I call this an adventurous pick is because when was the last time a 69-year-old made the top ten on any of AM's EOY lists? Along with Bob Dylan, Bowie could be the rare case of an elder statesman competing with the young wave of contemporary artists.
10. Blood Orange
- This pick may be a bit biased, as I really love Cupid Deluxe, but I think Dev Hynes has a chance at breaking out with his next album because he works in a genre that is certainly en vogue these days, and if he continues the use of jazzy elements like on "Sandra's Smile" I think the critics could fall head-over-heels for this album.

Other potential top ten picks include: Animal Collective, Chromatics, Drake, M83, M.I.A., and Pusha T (Darkest Before Dawn kinda flew under the radar being such a late release, but if it's only the prelude, what could he have in store for King Push?)

In addition to the aforementioned albums, I'm also excited for the trio of albums Lupe Fiasco may release this year, after Tetsuo & Youth turned me onto his music. Also, Young Thug's Barter 6 will likely factor into my EOY albums list, so I'm anticipating his first official studio album, Hy!£UN35. If I had to pick a top five most anticipated releases though, I'd say:
1. Frank Ocean
2. Radiohead
3. Drake
4. Run the Jewels
5. Bon Iver

edit: And of course, how could I forget LCD Soundsystem? They're quite likely to factor into the top ten, as well.

'nuther edit: And potential releases from Chance the Rapper and Vampire Weekend?! Count those in as contenders for the top ten, as well.

[Nassim]

Now that a Dr Dre album finally dropper, will 2016 be the year of The Wrens or The Avalanches comeback ?

Not too sure about the XX, Coexist had a tepid reception but if the tracks with 2 or 3 of them on In Colours is any sign it could indeed be huge.
I looooooove RTJ but they don't seem like a band that can sustend critical acclaim to me, I was very surprised by the welcome of RTJ2 (cause yes it's great but not that much greater than overlooked RTJ, R.A.P. Music, Cancer 4 Cure or I'll Sleep When You're Dead). But I hope they can outdo themselves anyway.

A bit worried for Kanye West, but even Graduation is #15 of its year so he should feature well enough. That being said he could be overshadowed by Drake, Frank Ocean, RTJ3, Chance the Rapper and/or Missy Elliott.

Being released early in the year doesn't help, but if Black Star can get good reviews in more trendy sources like Pitchfork, it should be a shoe-in for the top 10, there's no way more classic rock sources like Q, Mojo and of course Rolling Stone won't get behind it.

My biggest hopes are behind LCD Soundsystem, but I also hope Savages new album can feature well enough.

Albums I am the most excited about :
1. LCD Soundsystem
2. Chance the Rapper
3. RTJ3
4. Savages
5. Japandroids
Also : Gorillaz, Kanye West (not as excited by those 2 as I would have been a few years earlier but still), Afghan Whigs, Mutual Benefit, Grandaddy

[spiritualized]

Oh this is so sad.
I can't get much excited by these releases. With the exception of Radiohead and LCD Soundsystem.

Honorio's thread about the death of rock'n'roll (at least with the critics) is turning into a self fulfiling prophesy. Might as well not expand my record collection anymore

[antonius]

The National? Arcade Fire? Nick Cave? Not sure if they will release something, but it's been a while since their last album.

[luney6]

The National? Arcade Fire? Nick Cave? Not sure if they will release something, but it's been a while since their last album.

Arcade Fire has been releasing albums at three year intervals. Not sure if that means anything, but hopefully they will release an album this year.

[mowino]

Floridada isn't the best lead, though I have faith in Animal Collective. Also I'm here for Kanye West, RTJ3, Frank Ocean & LCD Soundsystem

[Harold]

Two late-December releases have received significant acclaim (not on the level of Beyonce or Black Messiah, but significant nonetheless) but were released too late to make many EOY lists:

*Pusha T - King Push - Darkest Before Dawn: The Prelude
*Baroness - Purple

What do you think of their chances of being included in 2016 EOY lists?

(Purple is at #121 on the 2015 spreadsheet right now; it's got an outside chance of being a Bubbling Under entry on the next update.)

[BleuPanda]

1. Kanye West
2. surprise Arcade Fire release
3. LCD Soundsystem
4. David Bowie
5. PJ Harvey
6. some new electronic artist we haven't been paying enough attention to yet
7. James Blake
8. Frank Ocean
9. Chromatics
10. surprise release from an old band that's pretty good; maybe not as definite as their old stuff, but all-in-all pretty good



Not appearing in the top 20. Radiohead

[Nick]

Kanye West will release an album that will be seen as a major critical disappointment when compared to his last albums, but will get at least a moderate amount of acclaim.

Frank Ocean's new album will blow everyone away and land in the top 5 albums on the AM spreadsheet.

David Bowie's new album is getting a ton of acclaim and will end up in the top 10 or 15 albums on the spreadsheet.

James Blake's new album will be warmly received, but not overly so. Same for Run the Jewels. Same for Chromatics.

PJ Harvey will release something really, really left-field and will end up in the top 10 albums on the spreadsheet.

LCD Soundsystem's new album is a total wildcard, but I'm hoping for the best. Same for Radiohead.

Animal Collective's new album will be warmly received by fans, but will be treated with apathy by most critics (and probably by me, seeing as I hated "Floridada").

Vampire Weekend will release an album to critical acclaim, will end up in the top 10 albums on the spreadsheet.

[GucciLittlePiggy]

*Pusha T - King Push - Darkest Before Dawn: The Prelude
*Baroness - Purple

What do you think of their chances of being included in 2016 EOY lists?

I think if King Push is any good then it will get all the acclaim rather than Darkest Before Dawn. And I doubt Baroness is popular enough that critics will feel obliged to include it on lists next year.

[Jeff]

I expect a few of the recent critic's darlings to have a falling off in acclaim, as this is usually the case after a few albums in the spotlight. The question is who. I lean toward James Blake since most critics do not have a natural affinity for his genre in the first place, but then again he is only on his third full length. Few acts have four or five highly acclaimed releases, so that suggests artists like Arcade Fire, the National, and Vampire Weekend. I think Kanye has too much cultural capital at present to release a critical dud. I'm not sure if Bowie will place in the top 10. Sure, he's a rock legend, but that might work against him in publications outside of Rolling Stone, Uncut, and the like. Plus, his album has a very early release date. The May-September release window is usually the critical-acclaim sweetspot, whereas winter tends to be where albums go to be forgotten.

I think artists like Radiohead and Animal Collective, whose most recent albums were met with a relatively lukewarm reception by their standards, are wildcards. I haven't looked into the data, but it seems like once an artist releases an album deemed 'subpar' by the critics, it is rare for them to return to their previous level of acclaim. There might be an exception for an act as canonized as Radiohead though (PJ Harvey and Tom Waits are other good examples of bucking this trend).

With all of the high profile releases, some of these past darlings are certain to be left out of the top ten, and that's before you factor in releases by emerging and unestablished artists we are not too familiar with yet. There's also artists with moderately acclaimed (i.e., ones placed outside the top 10) debuts that could make a leap with their follow ups. I like the suggestion of Chance the Rapper here. However, critics seem hesitant to hype more than two token hip hop albums per year, so he would probably need to establish himself as the second-choice after Kanye for that to happen (could be tricky if critics are still into Run the Jewels).

[notbrianeno]

Predictions:

James Blake comes away with album of the year for Radio Silence.

Kanye's album is his most polarizing since 808s and Heartbreak.

Frank Oceans album places in the top 10, but is seen as slightly inferior to his debut, much like The Strokes with Room on Fire.

PJ Harvey gets lukewarm reception just like Destroyer did last year.

Swans and Vampire Weekend come in 2nd and 3rd place behind James Blake in the EOY.

Bon Iver, The National, and Arcade Fire do not release albums in 2016.

Radiohead drop new album in February, to a similar level of acclaim as In Rainbows

[GucciLittlePiggy]

I think the key for Radiohead is to take another left turn. People seem to be getting increasingly indifferent to their electronic meanderings. Sure, they'll never release another record that doesn't have electronic influences but I think a return to the art rock of records past will surely get them back in the top ten.

Few acts have four or five highly acclaimed releases, so that suggests artists like Arcade Fire, the National, and Vampire Weekend.

I don't imagine The National shaking things up much ever again. They will keep their fans happy but will probably slip off the critics' radar. Next album might scrape the top 3000 but then they'll be resigned to bubbling under for the rest of their career. I think Arcade Fire and Vampire Weekend still have plenty of gas left in the tank, though. Arcade Fire are clearly not afraid to experiment so they'll keep everyone's attention for another album or two (hoping they don't go the way of U2 and become caricatures of themselves) and Vampire Weekend are coming off their most highly acclaimed album so they're not going anywhere just yet.

[Maschine_Man]

Beyonce will be the pop artist critics flock to if she releases another album.

St. Vincent will release an album towards the end of the year. If not, a single.

Perfume Genius and Anohni are going to duke it out for queer album of the year.

Arca will release another album. Possibly a collaboration, this one will get more traction than his previous two.

By the end of the year Daft Punk will be gearing up for a new album cycle.

Janelle Monae will release Suits 6 & 7 and will announce she is extending the cycle once again. It will be more overtly political.

[Setherex]

Perfume Genius and Anohni are going to duke it out for queer album of the year.

Easily the most overlooked Grammy category, right here.

[Sweepstakes Ron]

Now that Rostam's bailed, it looks like VW won't have too much going for them anymore.

[Andre]

It's time for a music revolution, so I'm hoping for a fantastic debut album from an artist / band that we have not yet heard of.

[Nick]

Now that Rostam's bailed, it looks like VW won't have too much going for them anymore.

From a recent Pitchfork interview with Rostam-

"I understand the idea of me being "a dude in a band," because people got to know me through Vampire Weekend, but it has caused a lot of frustration for me because I came from a different place from the get-go. Even though I’ve been making electronic music since I was 14, it’s hard for people to see you as a producer with a musical identity when you’re contextualized in a band that performs on a stage."

So Rostam's upset because people are recognizing him for his work as an essential member in one of the most iconic and critically acclaimed bands of the past ten years instead of focusing on his solo work? I'll take "problems I wish I had" for 200, Alex.