EOY 2015 Predictions

[Pierre]

I can think of two large differences between "Get Lucky" and "CFMF", which may explain why "Get Lucky" is super acclaimed, while "CFMF" (in my opinion) will not be the SOTY (or even make the top 10 SOTYs).

For my part, I can see a HUGE difference. Even though I did not want listen "Get Lucky", I had to... it was everywhere, all the time, in all areas (internet, TV, radio).

In the other hand,I still have not heard the other song, for an almost unknown band that have never aired or on TV or radio for the common people.

It's a big difference, no ? (I hope the words are not too hard, I have somme difficulties with the nuances in english )

Actually, Romain, CFMF is a huge hit in America, and most of the time this makes a huge difference. That said, it will probably get no acclaim from French critics, because, as you said, nobody knows it here

[Nassim]

I can think of two large differences between "Get Lucky" and "CFMF", which may explain why "Get Lucky" is super acclaimed, while "CFMF" (in my opinion) will not be the SOTY (or even make the top 10 SOTYs).

For my part, I can see a HUGE difference. Even though I did not want listen "Get Lucky", I had to... it was everywhere, all the time, in all areas (internet, TV, radio).

In the other hand,I still have not heard the other song, for an almost unknown band that have never aired or on TV or radio for the common people.

It's a big difference, no ? (I hope the words are not too hard, I have somme difficulties with the nuances in english )

Actually, Romain, CFMF is a huge hit in America, and most of the time this makes a huge difference. That said, it will probably get no acclaim from French critics, because, as you said, nobody knows it here

Well Romain, MagicRPM already proved you wrong, Can't Feel My Face made their list. I think it will make Les Inrocks' list too, though the review of the song they made was a strange mix of superlative and complains.
And I heard it on French radios by the way (though the well acclaimed summer hit was probably more Major Lazer's Lean On)

[Future Critic]

I know it's way too early to over-analyze this, but the following songs have appeared on all four of the major lists so far:
Hotline Bling, Drake (12|6|4|1)
Let It Happen, Tame Impala (7|2|34|2)
I Know There's Gonna Be (Good Times), Jamie xx (4|3|9|32)
King Kunta, Kendrick Lamar (33|11|6|15)

And the following have made three of the four lists:
Pedestrian at Best (2|8|6)
Gosh, Jamie xx (29|16|4)
What Do You Mean, Justin Bieber (1|41|46)
Ship to Wreck, Florence + the Machine (40|34|16)
Rewind, Kelela (6|48|45)
Should Have Known Better, Sufjan Stevens (80|7|25)
Lean On, Major Lazer (17|50|49)
Coffee, Miguel (24|31|68)
Hello, Adele (20|100|5)
Can't Keep Checking My Phone, Unknown Mortal Orchestra (95|29|32)

I feel like the song of the year will be between Let It Happen, Pedestrian at Best and King Kunta.

[Jeff]

I imagine that Kendrick easily gets album of the year.

The songs list seems more hotly contested. I'm thinking "Hotline Bling" has the US critic vote on lock, although it would not shock me to see "Trap Queen" give it a run in the Village Voice poll. The problem for either of them being overall song of the year is that non-North American sources tend to not be huge fans of R&B and hip hop. That Jamie xx song probably has a wider appeal, so it's my early guess for #1. I was expecting ""Lean On" to perform better, but only a few lists have come out so there's still time for it to catch up.

[phil]

I feel like the song of the year will be between Let It Happen, Pedestrian at Best and King Kunta.

Agree. I've been thinking it is going to be Let It Happen. And the first few that have come through have done nothing to change this. Pedestrian at Best seems a likely #2. The only thing counting against King Kunta is vote splitting. Kendrick Lamar has appeared in the top 10 songs of all of the lists so far (I think), but sometimes King Kunta has been pushed further down in favour of another of his in the top 10.

[Matski]

Anyone noticing any patterns or disparities amongst the list? As one on my favourite albums of the year, I'm ecstatic that 'Have you in My Wilderness' is doing so well with UK critics but unfortunatley it is close to nowhere-to-be-seen with many US outlets so far.

I'm also (happily) surprised to see 'Platform' topping some electronic music lists (Treblezine, WhatCulture) considering some of the disparaging remarks I remember seeing about it online when it was released. However, the late release of 'Elaenia' doesn't seem to have done it many favours on those same lists.

[Romain]

Well Romain, MagicRPM already proved you wrong, Can't Feel My Face made their list. I think it will make Les Inrocks' list too, though the review of the song they made was a strange mix of superlative and complains.
And I heard it on French radios by the way (though the well acclaimed summer hit was probably more Major Lazer's Lean On)

Yep indead.

In fact, when I see the first songs in the list made by Future Critic, I think it's more myself not be in the good "chanels" because the only song I really heard everywhere is : Lean On, Major Lazer (17|50|49) (and maybe Adele), the other are, for me, unknown I could not tell what the other singer or group looks like and the "melodies" of the songs.

[Future Critic]

So far, there aren't many surprises with the album rankings. Although I am a bit surprised about the following:
* Something More Than Free by Jason Isbell is currently ranked 12th. I still sort of expect to see this finish around 30th, but I think it's very deserving of a top 20 spot.
* Natalie Prass is currently ranked 15th. Again, I don't think this album will remain in the top 25, but I'm glad to see it in there.
* I actually hadn't even heard of "Simple Songs" by Jim O'Rourke prior to its high ranking.
* Art Angels ranking is very surprising. I thought it'd be a sure thing for the top 10, and I still think it will end up in the top 10.
* Also surprised that "The Most Lamentable Tragedy" is ranked so low. Although I think it will end up in the top 25, a top 10 finish seems very unlikely at this point.
* E-MO-TION by Carly Rae Jepsen deserves more mentions. In my opinion, it ranks alongside "1989" as one of the best pure pop albums of the decade. It's sad that Justin Bieber is getting more respect than Jepsen on these lists!

The songs lists have been quite surprising so far - although there haven't been many released yet.
* Each list seems to have little correlation, making me think that there were fewer universally acclaimed songs than in past years.
* The number ones have been quite surprising to me ("Alright", "What Do You Mean", "Shutdown" and even "Hotline Bling" are not what I'd expect as song of the year selections).
* I was expecting more support for the following songs: "Chateau Lobby #4", "No Shade in the Shadow of the Cross", "The Blacker the Berry", "In Time" and "Times Square"

[Pierre]

* Art Angels ranking is very surprising. I thought it'd be a sure thing for the top 10, and I still think it will end up in the top 10.

I've been fanboying on this album lately, and I find it annoying to see it so low. I believe its ranking is due to a conjunction of tepid reactions from some European critics and the fact that others are waiting for a physical release to review it, which might have hurt its ranking.

[Jackson]

Anyone noticing any patterns or disparities amongst the list? As one on my favourite albums of the year, I'm ecstatic that 'Have you in My Wilderness' is doing so well with UK critics but unfortunatley it is close to nowhere-to-be-seen with many US outlets so far.

I'm also (happily) surprised to see 'Platform' topping some electronic music lists (Treblezine, WhatCulture) considering some of the disparaging remarks I remember seeing about it online when it was released. However, the late release of 'Elaenia' doesn't seem to have done it many favours on those same lists.

This is interesting since Julia Holter is an American artist, but sort of makes sense in that UK outlets typically like more experimental stuff like Holter. I wonder if she can get some more #1 rankings from some of the left field publications like The Wire, which she won in 2013. Perhaps that will be enough to put the album in the top 10 for the year.

Platform is a good album but seems like it'll end up it in the 25-50 range in the overall poll. I'm curious to see more electronic lists, I haven't kept up with those releases as much this year. Seems wide open as bigger names like Burial, Caribou, Andy Stott, etc. didn't release anything this year.

[Jackson]

I'm also expecting Let It Happen will take the overall songs poll. Seems like a track that will do well across all regions and place in most lists. I'm disappointed in the lack of support for Blacker the Berry compared with the other two big Kendrick tracks--in what world are King Kunta or Alright in the same league??

[GucciLittlePiggy]

I'm disappointed in the lack of support for Blacker the Berry compared with the other two big Kendrick tracks--in what world are King Kunta or Alright in the same league??

Personally I prefer "King Kunta", but "The Blacker the Berry" is Kendrick's greatest lyrical moment. I have been bewildered at the acclaim for "Alright", though, as it has been one of, if not my least favorite track on the record. The intro and verses make me excited for a bombastic chorus but then... something feels off. Maybe that's the intent of the chorus's production; to keep that underlying sense that not everything is "alright". Probably not, but I think I can safely say that no matter where it lands on the final spreadsheet, it won't be the song from the album people will remember most fondly in years to come. I just haven't heard all that many people raving about it, aside from some critics.

What I'd REALLY like to see is some love for "How Much a Dollar Cost?" After several listens to TPAB, it became my favorite track. It gives me chills literally every time I hear it.

[Matski]

This is interesting since Julia Holter is an American artist, but sort of makes sense in that UK outlets typically like more experimental stuff like Holter. I wonder if she can get some more #1 rankings from some of the left field publications like The Wire, which she won in 2013. Perhaps that will be enough to put the album in the top 10 for the year.

Sure the UK has some publications with more leftfield tastes but her album seems to be doing well mostly with magazines like Mojo, Q and Uncut. Perhaps my tastes are becoming old-fashioned much quicker than I'd realised.

What I'd REALLY like to see is some love for "How Much a Dollar Cost?" After several listens to TPAB, it became my favorite track. It gives me chills literally every time I hear it.

You're not alone, that's possibly my favourite track off the album too. The eerie tones kinda remind me of Radiohead's 'Pyramid Song'. Plus it kicks off (what is for me) the best section of the album, fantastic songs all the way to the end.

-----

EDIT: Seems we're not the only ones who love that track GucciLittlePiggy...

[mowino]

Could "To Pimp A Butterfly" reach the top 50 of all time?

[Nick]

Could "To Pimp A Butterfly" reach the top 50 of all time?

It's going to place high, no doubt. But I don't think a new album has EVER debuted in the top 100. Top 50 is out of the question in my mind. I'd predict a debut around 150 or so. It could very well make the top 100 in subsequent updates. I think the EOD lists are going to be very kind to it.

[Bruno]

Could "To Pimp A Butterfly" reach the top 50 of all time?

It's going to place high, no doubt. But I don't think a new album has EVER debuted in the top 100. Top 50 is out of the question in my mind. I'd predict a debut around 150 or so. It could very well make the top 100 in subsequent updates. I think the EOD lists are going to be very kind to it.

Yeah, I'd say top 150 too.

[Nassim]

[imgsize 640x640]http://www.tinymixtapes.com/sites/defau ... o-2015.png[/imgsize]

[Nick]

[imgsize 640x640]http://www.tinymixtapes.com/sites/defau ... o-2015.png[/imgsize]

Am I to assume that the center square is in reference to David Bowie's "Blackstar"?

[Nick]

One thing I'm super curious about is how high Kendrick Lamar's artist ranking is going to rise come the next update. With an album that id going to be the clear AOTY, as well as some very highly ranking songs ("King Kunta" and "Alright") as well as some decently ranked songs ("Bad Blood" and "The Blacker the Berry"), I wonder how high Kendrick's artist rank can go. Maybe not top 100, but probably pretty close.

[phil]

Bold prediction time: Pitchfork will give their AOTY 2015 to Black Messiah.

Starting to think this is a possibility after seeing their songs list since:
1) D'Angelo had two songs from the album in the list
2) Kendrick Lamar was #1 on songs. It is pretty rare that they give both AoTY and SoTY to the same artist.

If it happens, you win EOY predictions Nick.

[Setherex]

Bold prediction time: Pitchfork will give their AOTY 2015 to Black Messiah.

Starting to think this is a possibility after seeing their songs list since:
1) D'Angelo had two songs from the album in the list
2) Kendrick Lamar was #1 on songs. It is pretty rare that they give both AoTY and SoTY to the same artist.

If it happens, you win EOY predictions Nick.

It "Currents" gets #1, can I be the winner of EOY predictions please?

[Nick]

Right now there are only 3 reasonable choices for Pitchfork's AOTY. "Black Messiah", "To Pimp a Butterfly", and "Carrie and Lowell". "In Colour" and "Currents" are semi reasonable picks. Anything else is just ludicrous.
Just my 2 cents.

[notbrianeno]

Bold prediction time: Pitchfork will give their AOTY 2015 to Black Messiah.

Good chance I'll be eating my words from the looks of "Really Love" on the SOTY list!

[Nick]

Bold prediction time: Pitchfork will give their AOTY 2015 to Black Messiah.

Good chance I'll be eating my words from the looks of "Really Love" on the SOTY list!

Not to mention "Sugah Daddy"!

[Setherex]

Right now there are only 3 reasonable choices for Pitchfork's AOTY. "Black Messiah", "To Pimp a Butterfly", and "Carrie and Lowell". "In Colour" and "Currents" are semi reasonable picks. Anything else is just ludicrous.
Just my 2 cents.

http://pitchfork.com/features/staff-lis ... of-2015/5/

At this point, it should be no surprise that Kendrick Lamar's To Pimp a Butterfly is the Album of the Year on numerous lists, including this one.

[Nick]

Right now there are only 3 reasonable choices for Pitchfork's AOTY. "Black Messiah", "To Pimp a Butterfly", and "Carrie and Lowell". "In Colour" and "Currents" are semi reasonable picks. Anything else is just ludicrous.
Just my 2 cents.

http://pitchfork.com/features/staff-lis ... of-2015/5/

At this point, it should be no surprise that Kendrick Lamar's To Pimp a Butterfly is the Album of the Year on numerous lists, including this one.

Well "Black Messiah" didn't win like I predicted it to, but oh well. I like the Kendrick album more anyway.

[mowino]

D' Angelo - Black Messiah is currently 669 of all time. Hopefully it will have a significant boosts after the EOY's

[Nick]

D' Angelo - Black Messiah is currently 669 of all time. Hopefully it will have a significant boosts after the EOY's

Actually, I could very well see the album decreasing in rank after the EOY lists are factored in. The way Henrik's formula works is that it rewards albums that get a high amount of initial acclaim, and then are able to sustain that acclaim throughout the coming years. If "Black Messiah" doesn't rise any higher than the mid-30s or so on the 2015 EOY list, I wouldn't keep my hopes up for its future in the top 1000.

[mowino]

D' Angelo - Black Messiah is currently 669 of all time. Hopefully it will have a significant boosts after the EOY's

Actually, I could very well see the album decreasing in rank after the EOY lists are factored in. The way Henrik's formula works is that it rewards albums that get a high amount of initial acclaim, and then are able to sustain that acclaim throughout the coming years. If "Black Messiah" doesn't rise any higher than the mid-30s or so on the 2015 EOY list, I wouldn't keep my hopes up for its future in the top 1000.

I see, that makes sense. I can see Black Messiah being featured in all time lists, in years to come. What a record!

[PlasticRam]

D' Angelo - Black Messiah is currently 669 of all time. Hopefully it will have a significant boosts after the EOY's

Actually, I could very well see the album decreasing in rank after the EOY lists are factored in. The way Henrik's formula works is that it rewards albums that get a high amount of initial acclaim, and then are able to sustain that acclaim throughout the coming years. If "Black Messiah" doesn't rise any higher than the mid-30s or so on the 2015 EOY list, I wouldn't keep my hopes up for its future in the top 1000.

But isn't the thing though that it got acclaim from late EOY 2014 lists and now it has got acclaim from early EOY 2015 lists and won't get punished that much cos publications can't list it twice. I do see a future for it even in the top 500 actually. Obviously depends a lot on end-of-decade and all-time lists.

[Otisredding]

This is what we said

Otisredding
1 Kendrick Lamar: To Pimp A Butterfly
2 Sufjan Stevens: Carrie & Lowell
3 Julia Holter: Have You in My Wilderness
4 Joanna Newsom: Divers
5 Courtney Barnett: Sometimes I Sit and Think, and Sometimes I Just Sit
6 Father John Misty: I Love You, Honeybear
7 Björk: Vulnicura
8 Sleater-Kinney: No To Love Cities
9 Blur: The Magic Whip
10 Destroyer: Poison Season

Maschine_Man
1 Kendrick Lamar: To Pimp A Butterfly
2 Sufjan Stevens: Carrie & Lowell
3 Björk: Vulnicura
4 Father John Misty: I Love You, Honeybear
5 Joanna Newsom: Divers
6 Courtney Barnett: Sometimes I Sit and Think, and Sometimes I Just Sit
7 Tame Impala - Currents 
8 Grimes - Art Angels
9 Adele - 25 
10 Julia Holter: Have You in My Wilderness

Nick
1. Kendrick Lamar
2. Sufjan Stevens
3. Tame Impala
4. Courtney Barnett
5. Jamie xx
6. Father John Misty
7. Joanna Newsom
8. Bjork
9. Dr. Dre
10. Grimes

Future Critic
01. To Pimp a Butterfly, Kendrick Lamar
02. Carrie & Lowell, Sufjan Stevens
03. Currents, Tame Impala
04. In Colour, Jamie xx
05. Sometimes I Sit and Think, and Sometimes I just Sit, Courtney Barnett
06. I Love You, Honeybear, Father John Misty
07. Art Angels, Grimes
08. Poison Season, Destroyer
09. Divers, Joanna Newsom
10. Vulnicura, Bjork

ordinaryperson
1. To Pimp A Butterfly by Kendrick Lamar
2. Carrie and Lowell by Sufjan Stevens 
3. I Love You, Honeybear by Father John Misty 
4. Vulnicura by Bjork
5. No Cities To Love by Sleather-Kinney 
6. Sometimes I Sit and Think, Sometimes I Just Sit by Courtney Barnett
7. Have You in My Wilderness by Julia Holter 
8. Currents by Tame Impala
9. Art Angels by Grimes 
10. From Kinshasa by Mbongwana Star 

phil
1. Kendrick Lamar
2. Sufjan Stevens
3, Courtney Barnett
4. Tame Impala
5. Father John Misty
6. Bjork
7. Jamie xx
8. Grimes
9. Sleater-Kinney
10. Joanna Newsom

notbrianeno
1. Kendrick Lamar: To Pimp a Butterfly
2. Sufjan Stevens: Carrie & Lowell
3. Jamie xx: In Colour
4. Sleater-Kinney: No Cities To Love
5. Tame Impala: Currents
6. Julia Holter: Have You in My Wilderness
7. Björk: Vulnicura
8. Father John Misty: I Love You, Honeybear
9. Joanna Newsom: Divers
10. Deafheaven: New Bermuda

And this is the answer (EOY 2015)
1. Kendrick Lamar: To Pimp a Butterfly
2. Sufjan Stevens: Carrie & Lowell
3. Jamie xx: In Colour
4. Father John Misty: I Love You, Honeybear
5. Tame Impala: Currents
6. Courtney Barnett: Sometimes I Sit and Think, and Sometimes I Just Sit
7. Julia Holter: Have You in My Wilderness
8. Grimes: Art Angels
9. Sleater-Kinney: No Cities To Love
10. Björk: Vulnicura
11. Joanna Newsom: Divers
14. Blur: The Magic Whip
21. Deafheaven: New Bermuda
30. Destroyer: Poison Season
54. Mbongwana Star: From Kinshasa
59. Dr. Dre: Compton
71. Adele: 25

And the winners are: 1) Phil; 2) notbrianeno; 3) Future Critic

We do not need the work of Harold. All we have to do is ask, the day November 18, 2016,

Phil, what will be the best albums of the year?

[mowino]

Do you think Kanye West is safe at #1 this decade?

[Nick]

Do you think Kanye West is safe at #1 this decade?

It's impossible to say for sure, but I'd say probably. The most acclaimed albums of the decade tend to come out at the beginning of the decade due to a reverse recency bias come EOD list time. That means that the AOTD has probably already been released. Seeing as MBDTF is the clear number 1 of the decade this far, it's safe to say it will stay there.

[GucciLittlePiggy]

The only challenger thus far is TPAB, but seeing as Kanye is one of the few contemporary artists one could say is a canonized legend, MBDTF will probably get the most acclaim at the end of the decade. But I wouldn't say his artist rank is safe by any means. Kendrick, Arcade Fire, Tame Impala, St. Vincent and Grimes all seem like good bets for releasing mega-acclaimed works by the end of the decade.

[mowino]

No of albums in the Top 1000/Top 500 (% in Top 500) (Change in % each year)

2010 = 15/7 (47%) (=)
2011 = 14/3 (21%) (-26)
2012 = 13/3 (23%) (+2)
2013 = 14/5 (27%) (+4)
2014 = 16/5 (31%) (+4)
2015 = ?

2015 has been an amazing year of music, it's interesting to see how it fairs up, come the update