Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

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Harold
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Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Harold » Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:37 pm

Now that the EOY albums spreadsheet is (presumably) complete, I’d like to turn my attention to one of my favorite exercises: trying to predict where the 2013 albums will end up on the all-time list in the next AM update.

Once again, as opposed to Henrik’s statistical rigor, I’m doing this via the most spectacularly unscientific method imaginable, one that has been rather surprisingly more or less accurate over the years. It’s a simple matter of adding up the following figures:
• The number of points accumulated by an album on the AM EOY spreadsheet;
• The album’s Metascore on Metacritic;
• The album’s All Music Guide star rating.

As there have already been several non-EOY lists that have included 2013 albums (as compiled in this thread: http://acclaimedmusic.net/forums/viewto ... f=3&t=1331), I’ve assigned bonus points to those albums (the values are chosen randomly, because there isn’t anything about this that isn’t random anyway):
• Addition to the latest volume of 1001 Albums You Must Hear Before You Die: 30 points
• NME 500 Greatest Albums: 25 points (none of the 4 albums that apply here ranked higher than #335)
• Beats Per Minute Top 130 of the last 5 years: top 50 – 10 points; 51-100 – 5 points; 101-130 – 3 points

Based on this system, here are my predictions for the 2013 albums that will be added to the Acclaimed Music database, and where they might land. The information is separated as follows:

Overall Rank / Artist / Title / AM EOY Spreadsheet Points / Metascore / AMG Rating / Bonus Points / Total
(NOTE: For a few albums, an AMG rating was either unavailable – notably the free mixtapes Acid Rap and Run the Jewels – or ineligible because there was no review accompanying it.)

TOP 500
1 / Kanye West / Yeezus / 275 / 84 / 4.5 / 5 / 368.5
2 / Vampire Weekend / Modern Vampires of the City / 227 / 84 / 4 / 10 / 325
3 / Daft Punk / Random Access Memories / 208 / 87 / 4.5 / 25 / 324.5
4 / Arcade Fire / Reflektor / 225 / 80 / 3.5 / / 308.5

501-1000
5 / My Bloody Valentine / m b v / 166 / 87 / 4 / 40 / 297
6 / The National / Trouble Will Find Me / 172 / 84 / 3.5 / 28 / 287.5
7 / Arctic Monkeys / AM / 156 / 81 / 4 / 25 / 266
8 / Nick Cave and The Bad Seeds / Push the Sky Away / 176 / 81 / 3.5 / / 260.5
9 / David Bowie / The Next Day / 134 / 81 / 3.5 / 30 / 248.5
10 / James Blake / Overgrown / 151 / 82 / 4.5 / / 237.5
11 / Disclosure / Settle / 140 / 81 / 4 / 10 / 235
12 / The Knife / Shaking the Habitual / 132 / 85 / 4 / 10 / 231

1001-2000
13 / Queens of the Stone Age / …Like Clockwork / 97 / 82 / 4.5 / 25 / 208.5
14 / Haim / Days Are Gone / 124 / 79 / 4 / / 207
15 / Julia Holter / Loud City Song / 105 / 89 / 4.5 / 3 / 201.5
16 / Kurt Vile / Wakin on a Pretty Daze / 108 / 82 / 4 / 5 / 199
17 / Savages / Silence Yourself / 109 / 82 / 4 / 3 / 198
18 / Jon Hopkins / Immunity / 108 / 82 / 3.5 / 3 / 196.5
18 / Boards of Canada / Tomorrow's Harvest / 97 / 85 / 4.5 / 10 / 196.5
20 / Janelle Monae / The Electric Lady / 104 / 83 / 4 / / 191
21 / Deafheaven / Sunbather / 79 / 92 / 4.5 / 10 / 185.5
22 / Bill Callahan / Dream River / 90 / 83 / 3.5 / / 176.5
23 / Chvrches / The Bones of What You Believe / 79 / 80 / 4 / / 163
24 / Danny Brown / Old / 74 / 83 / 4.5 / / 161.5
25 / Laura Marling / Once I Was an Eagle / 68 / 86 / 3.5 / / 157.5
26 / Chance the Rapper / Acid Rap / 71 / 86 / / / 157
27 / These New Puritans / Field of Reeds / 70 / 82 / 4.5 / / 156.5
28 / John Grant / Pale Green Ghosts / 66 / 82 / 3 / / 151
29 / Earl Sweatshirt / Doris / 63 / 82 / 4 / / 149
30 / Tim Hecker / Virgins / 57 / 87 / 4 / / 148
31 / Deerhunter / Monomania / 63 / 81 / 3.5 / / 147.5
32 / Oneohtrix Point Never / R Plus Seven / 63 / 80 / 4 / / 147

2001-3000
33 / Parquet Courts / Light Up Gold / 55 / 84 / 4.5 / / 143.5
34 / Phosphorescent / Muchacho / 54 / 85 / 4 / / 143
35 / Darkside / Psychic / 60 / 79 / 3.5 / / 142.5
36 / Foals / Holy Fire / 62 / 76 / 4 / / 142
36 / Lorde / Pure Heroine / 61 / 78 / 3 / / 142
38 / Run the Jewels / Run the Jewels / 55 / 85 / / / 140
38 / Factory Floor / Factory Floor / 55 / 81 / 4 / / 140
40 / Holden / The Inheritors / 58 / 80 / / / 138
41 / Neko Case / The Worse Things Get, The Harder I Fight, The Harder I Fight, The More I Love You / 49 / 84 / 4.5 / / 137.5
42 / Rhye / Woman / 53 / 79 / 4 / / 136
42 / King Krule / 6 Feet Beneath the Moon / 55 / 77 / 4 / / 136
44 / Fuck Buttons / Slow Focus / 50 / 80 / 4 / / 134
45 / Drake / Nothing Was the Same / 48 / 79 / 3.5 / / 130.5
46 / The Haxan Cloak / Excavation / 34 / 84 / 4 / 5 / 127
47 / Foxygen / We Are the 21st Century Ambassadors of Peace and Magic / 42 / 80 / 4.5 / / 126.5
48 / Jagwar Ma / Howlin / 42 / 79 / 4 / / 125
49 / Mikal Cronin / MCII / 37 / 84 / 3.5 / / 124.5
50 / Forest Swords / Engravings / 43 / 81 / / / 124
51 / Justin Timberlake / The 20/20 Experience [1 of 2] / 46 / 75 / 2.5 / / 123.5
52 / Atoms for Peace / Amok / 43 / 76 / 4 / / 123
52 / Daniel Avery / Drone Logic / 36 / 83 / 4 / / 123
52 / Autre Ne Veut / Anxiety / 38 / 78 / 4 / 3 / 123

Bubbling Under:
55 / Yo La Tengo / Fade / 33 / 82 / 4 / / 119
55 / Jason Isbell / Southeastern / 28 / 87 / 4 / / 119
57 / Pusha T / My Name is My Name / 32 / 82 / 4.5 / / 118.5
58 / Pet Shop Boys / Electric / 30 / 84 / 4 / / 118
59 / DJ Koze / Amygdala / 30 / 83 / 4 / / 117
59 / Kacey Musgraves / Same Trailer Different Park / 25 / 88 / 4 / / 117
61 / Prefab Sprout / Crimson/Red / 35 / 81 / / / 116
61 / Waxahatchee / Cerulean Salt / 33 / 79 / 4 / / 116
63 / Carcass / Surgical Steel / 25 / 86 / 4 / / 115
64 / M.I.A. / Matangi / 33 / 78 / 3 / / 114
65 / Kelela / Cut 4 Me / 28 / 81 / 4 / / 113
66 / Jonathan Wilson / Fanfare / 30 / 78 / 4 / / 112
67 / Thundercat / Apocalypse / 24 / 83 / 4.5 / / 111.5
68 / Moderat / II / 33 / 74 / 4 / / 111
68 / Sky Ferreira / Night Time, My Time / 30 / 77 / 4 / / 111
68 / Hookworms / Pearl Mystic / 30 / 77 / 4 / / 111
71 / Frightened Rabbit / Pedestrian Verse / 27 / 79 / 4 / / 110
71 / Unknown Mortal Orchestra / II / 28 / 78 / 4 / / 110
71 / DJ Rashad / Double Cup / 27 / 79 / 4 / / 110
74 / Matthew E. White / Big Inner / 21 / 85 / 3 / / 109
75 / The Flaming Lips / The Terror / 27 / 77 / 4 / / 108
76 / Daughter / If You Leave / 32 / 72 / 3.5 / / 107.5
76 / Blood Orange / Cupid Deluxe / 28 / 76 / 3.5 / / 107.5
76 / Nine Inch Nails / Hesitation Marks / 26 / 77 / 4.5 / / 107.5
79 / Chelsea Wolfe / Pain is Beauty / 21 / 82 / 4 / / 107
80 / Beyoncé / Beyoncé / 16 / 86 / 4.5 / / 106.5

I figured Beyoncé was a good stopping point.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Jirin » Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:43 pm

I'd agree with most of those. I might bump The National and Beyonce up a level. The National because having previously established critical cred helps get more critical cred in the future, and Beyonce because she's the rare case of a pop hit that's also a critical hit and because her late release got her underrated on EOY lists.

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HRS
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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by HRS » Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:50 pm

I agree with Harold's predictions. I think critics will include Beyoncé inside their 2014 lists. I don't know if it's because the year has barely started and the album still seems the hottest release around.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Nick » Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:55 am

Thanks for the predictions! Any idea where the songs will land?

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Harold » Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:38 am

Nick wrote:Thanks for the predictions! Any idea where the songs will land?
I don't pay quite as much attention to the songs as to the albums. Maybe someone else can look at those. The order of the songs that make it into the AM database will probably be pretty close to their order on the EOY spreadsheet, as there aren't extras to factor in for the songs like a Metascore or an AMG rating.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Bruno » Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:06 pm

Harold wrote:80 / Beyoncé / Beyoncé / 16 / 86 / 4.5 / / 106.5

I figured Beyoncé was a good stopping point.
I have the impression that if this album was released before, would be better placed.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Nick » Fri Jan 24, 2014 12:47 am

Bruno wrote:
Harold wrote:80 / Beyoncé / Beyoncé / 16 / 86 / 4.5 / / 106.5

I figured Beyoncé was a good stopping point.
I have the impression that if this album was released before, would be better placed.
True, but thanks to the amount of EOY 2014 lists it will probably appear on, I think that problem will solve itself rather quickly.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Bruno » Sat Jan 25, 2014 3:25 am

Nick wrote:
Bruno wrote:
Harold wrote:80 / Beyoncé / Beyoncé / 16 / 86 / 4.5 / / 106.5

I figured Beyoncé was a good stopping point.
I have the impression that if this album was released before, would be better placed.
True, but thanks to the amount of EOY 2014 lists it will probably appear on, I think that problem will solve itself rather quickly.
Good!

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Jackson » Sat Jan 25, 2014 4:54 am

Nick wrote:Thanks for the predictions! Any idea where the songs will land?
The most interesting question of the 2013 update from an AM perspective is how high will Get Lucky land? It's hard for me to picture it not getting ahead of "Midnight City" (currently #116) to become the most acclaimed track of the decade, which means it may crack the top 100.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Bruno » Sat Jan 25, 2014 1:15 pm

Jackson wrote:
Nick wrote:Thanks for the predictions! Any idea where the songs will land?
The most interesting question of the 2013 update from an AM perspective is how high will Get Lucky land? It's hard for me to picture it not getting ahead of "Midnight City" (currently #116) to become the most acclaimed track of the decade, which means it may crack the top 100.
I'd say 50-70.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Nick » Sat Jan 25, 2014 2:34 pm

Bruno wrote:
Jackson wrote:
Nick wrote:Thanks for the predictions! Any idea where the songs will land?
The most interesting question of the 2013 update from an AM perspective is how high will Get Lucky land? It's hard for me to picture it not getting ahead of "Midnight City" (currently #116) to become the most acclaimed track of the decade, which means it may crack the top 100.
I'd say 50-70.
This is a pretty good prediction. I'd have to agree.

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Re: Albums of 2013: AM Update Predictions

Post by Harold » Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:02 pm

I've tweaked and streamlined my update predictions somewhat following the addition of another EOY album list:

Top 500
Kanye West / Yeezus
Daft Punk / Random Access Memories
Vampire Weekend / Modern Vampires of the City
Arcade Fire / Reflektor

501-1000
My Bloody Valentine / m b v
The National / Trouble Will Find Me
Arctic Monkeys / AM
Nick Cave and The Bad Seeds / Push the Sky Away
David Bowie / The Next Day
James Blake / Overgrown
Disclosure / Settle
The Knife / Shaking the Habitual

1001-2000
Queens of the Stone Age / …Like Clockwork
Haim / Days Are Gone
Julia Holter / Loud City Song
Savages / Silence Yourself
Kurt Vile / Wakin on a Pretty Daze
Jon Hopkins / Immunity
Boards of Canada / Tomorrow's Harvest
Janelle Monae / The Electric Lady
Deafheaven / Sunbather
Bill Callahan / Dream River
Chvrches / The Bones of What You Believe
Danny Brown / Old
Chance the Rapper / Acid Rap
Laura Marling / Once I Was an Eagle
These New Puritans / Field of Reeds

2001-3000
John Grant / Pale Green Ghosts
Earl Sweatshirt / Doris
Deerhunter / Monomania
Tim Hecker / Virgins
Darkside / Psychic
Oneohtrix Point Never / R Plus Seven
Parquet Courts / Light Up Gold [2012]
Foals /Holy Fire
Phosphorescent / Muchacho
Lorde / Pure Heroine
Factory Floor / Factory Floor
Run the Jewels / Run the Jewels
Holden / The Inheritors
King Krule / 6 Feet Beneath the Moon
Neko Case / The Worse Things Get, The Harder I Fight …
Rhye / Woman
Fuck Buttons / Slow Focus
Drake / Nothing Was the Same

Bubbling Under
Foxygen / We Are the 21st Century Ambassadors …
Jagwar Ma / Howlin
The Haxan Cloak / Excavation
Atoms for Peace / Amok
Justin Timberlake / The 20/20 Experience [1 of 2]
Mikal Cronin / MCII
Forest Swords / Engravings
Autre Ne Veut / Anxiety
Daniel Avery / Drone Logic
Yo La Tengo / Fade
Jason Isbell / Southeastern
Pusha T / My Name is My Name
Pet Shop Boys / Electric
DJ Koze / Amygdala
Kacey Musgraves / Same Trailer Different Park
Prefab Sprout / Crimson/Red
Waxahatchee / Cerulean Salt
Carcass / Surgical Steel
M.I.A. / Matangi
Jonathan Wilson / Fanfare
Kelela / Cut 4 Me
Thundercat / Apocalypse
Moderat / II
Sky Ferreira / Night Time, My Time
Hookworms / Pearl Mystic
Unknown Mortal Orchestra / II
Frightened Rabbit / Pedestrian Verse
Matthew E. White / Big Inner [2012]
DJ Rashad / Double Cup
Possible Bubblers
Daughter / If You Leave
Blood Orange / Cupid Deluxe
Nine Inch Nails / Hesitation Marks
The Flaming Lips / The Terror
Sigur Ros / Kveikur
Chelsea Wolfe / Pain is Beauty
Beyoncé / Beyoncé

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